Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a WWII Turn-Based Combat game?

Turn-Based Combat + World War II

Only 16 developers shipped a WWII Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Burden of Command™, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced, ×5.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $470k, ×750 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 28 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 28 announced, ×5.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Combat + World War II
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.9k → $108k → $609k → $52k → $15k → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Combat + World War II: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,246)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $14,840)
Top 5% $471k (exactly $470,812)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 90
Announced 28
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 55% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
World War II
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Turn-Based Combat; all of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Tactical, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, Isometric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 1,170 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $470k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 8 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaStrong odds20 devs · median $19k · 21 announced
  2. + Hack and SlashStrong odds28 devs · median $3.7k · 27 announced
  3. + RomeFair8 devs · median $16k · 13 announced
  4. + CookingFair15 devs · median $6.0k · 22 announced
  5. + UndergroundFair18 devs · median $4.2k · 29 announced
  6. + IdlerFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  7. + DiceFair49 devs · median $2.2k · 59 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair81 devs · median $1.4k · 107 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair59 devs · median $1.3k · 71 announced
  10. + Tower DefenseFair28 devs · median $839 · 34 announced
  11. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $719 · 52 announced
  12. + SolitaireFair26 devs · median $450 · 31 announced

All 175 pairs on the Turn-Based Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Panzer Corps 2 2020 · $4.2M Unity of Command II 2019 · $1.8M Classified: France '44 2024 · $1.0M The Troop 2023 · $979k Headquarters: World War II 2024 · $609k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Panzer Corps 2 older $39.99 3,512 84% 105k $4.2M (exactly $4,213,346) Flashback Games
Unity of Command II older $29.99 2,042 79% 61k $1.8M (exactly $1,837,187) 2x2 Games, Croteam
Classified: France '44 older $39.99 844 70% 25k $1.0M (exactly $1,012,547) Absolutely Games
The Troop older $39.99 816 83% 24k $979k (exactly $978,955) Giant Flame
Headquarters: World War II older $39.99 508 74% 15k $609k (exactly $609,448) Starni Games
Strategic Mind: Blitzkrieg older $39.99 442 84% 13k $530k (exactly $530,267) Starni Games
Strategic Mind: The Pacific older $29.99 538 74% 16k $484k (exactly $484,039) Starni Games
Burden of Command™ $24.99 628 83% 19k $471k (exactly $470,812) Green Tree Games LLC
Broken Lines older $24.99 604 76% 18k $453k (exactly $452,819) BirdIsland/PortaPlay
Panzer Strategy older $29.99 437 64% 13k $393k (exactly $393,169) Starni Games
Scramble: Battle of Britain · EA $29.99 209 88% 6.3k $188k (exactly $188,037) Slitherine Ltd.
Forgotten but Unbroken $19.99 249 76% 7.5k $149k (exactly $149,325) Centurion Developments
Frontline: Assault Corps WW2 $14.99 33 75% 990 $15k (exactly $14,840) Frontline: Games Series
Panzer Commander $6.99 12 100% 360 $2.5k (exactly $2,516) Fancing Game Studio
Battleships and Carriers 2: 1940-1945 $15.99 5 60% 150 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) SLS
War Pawns · EA $9.99 8 87% 240 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) SOKILL
101st Airborne in Normandy $4.99 15 60% 450 $2.2k (exactly $2,246) Interactive Simulations
Tracktopia $4.99 8 100% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) GalaDev
Tyrants $6.99 3 33% 90 $629 (exactly $629) Artifex Parvus

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.