Do I ship it?

GamesTacticalTactical + World War II

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a WWII Tactical game?

Tactical + World War II

Of 44 developers who shipped a WWII Tactical game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 77 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $15k, ×24 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.7M, ×4404 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 77 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 23.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 77 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical + World War II
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 44
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.9k → $108k → $43k → $188k → $110k → $2.2k → $1.3k (still earning) → $67k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical + World War II: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 44
Bottom 30% $2.2k (exactly $2,246)
Median $15k (exactly $14,840)
Top 25% $334k (exactly $334,166)
Top 5% $2.8M (exactly $2,765,447)
Developers, 2 yr 44
Released games 242
Announced 77
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
World War II
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Tactical; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Wargame, RTS
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 38,285 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.3k, median $15k, 1 in 4 over $330k, 1 in 20 over $2.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.3k. 6 in 10 of the 28 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 77 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Football (American)Strong odds12 devs · median $5.8k · 8 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced
  4. + 6DOFFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 19 announced
  5. + Word GameFair23 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 9 announced
  7. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $1.0k · 10 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair38 devs · median $987 · 57 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair13 devs · median $899 · 16 announced
  10. + Farming SimFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  11. + SolitaireFair25 devs · median $479 · 22 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Fair20 devs · median $479 · 21 announced

All 226 pairs on the Tactical page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
Hell Let Loose older $49.99 99,628 83% 3.0M $149M (exactly $149,412,112) Expression Games
Sniper Elite 4 older $59.99 54,258 91% 1.6M $98M (exactly $97,648,123) Rebellion
Company of Heroes 3 older $59.99 24,516 59% 735k $44M (exactly $44,121,445) Relic Entertainment
Foxhole older $29.99 47,330 79% 1.4M $43M (exactly $42,582,801) Siege Camp
Company of Heroes 2 older $19.99 68,909 80% 2.1M $41M (exactly $41,324,727) Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive… (Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Men of War: Assault Squad 2 older $29.99 35,744 91% 1.1M $32M (exactly $32,158,877) Digitalmindsoft
Sniper Elite 3 older $29.99 21,407 82% 642k $19M (exactly $19,259,878) Rebellion
Red Orchestra 2: Heroes of Stalingrad with Rising Storm older $19.99 24,876 93% 746k $15M (exactly $14,918,137) Tripwire Interactive
Squad 44 older $19.99 18,945 78% 568k $11M (exactly $11,361,316) Offworld
IRON NEST: Heavy Turret Simulator $19.99 13,278 97% 398k $8.0M (exactly $7,962,817) Nick Nieuwoudt, Dominik Latos
Age of History 3 $9.99 18,102 85% 543k $5.4M (exactly $5,425,169) Łukasz Jakowski
Commandos: Origins $49.99 1,844 79% 55k $2.8M (exactly $2,765,447) Claymore Game Studios
Sudden Strike 5 $49.99 641 75% 19k $961k (exactly $961,308) Kite Games
Company of Heroes 3: Final Stand $29.99 1,015 49% 30k $913k (exactly $913,196) Relic Entertainment
KAISERPUNK $29.99 884 71% 27k $795k (exactly $795,335) Overseer Games
Task Force Admiral - Vol.1: American Carrier Battles · EA $39.99 633 87% 19k $759k (exactly $759,410) Drydock Dreams Games
Tank Squad $19.99 847 70% 25k $508k (exactly $507,946) DeGenerals S.A.
Burden of Command™ $24.99 628 83% 19k $471k (exactly $470,812) Green Tree Games LLC
63 Days $29.99 413 72% 12k $372k (exactly $371,576) Destructive Creations

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.