Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + World War II

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a WWII Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + World War II

Only 11 developers shipped a WWII Immersive Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Indiana Jones and the Great Circle, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $110k, ×70 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $7.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $27M, ×18303 the market median. Revenue is up 225% on the market; 26 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 70.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 225% on the market, 26 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + World War II
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $84k → $3.9k → $14k → $105k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + World War II: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $7.2k (exactly $7,195)
Median $105k (exactly $105,265)
Top 25% $508k (exactly $507,946)
Top 5% $27M (exactly $27,417,883)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 52
Announced 26
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $19.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 225% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
World War II
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim
Price point
$19.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 28,100 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $7.2k, median $110k, 1 in 4 over $500k, 1 in 20 over $27M.

3 in 10 developers made under $7.2k. 5 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 26 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Indiana Jones and the Great Circle $69.99 13,058 89% 392k $27M (exactly $27,417,883) MachineGames
Red Orchestra 2: Heroes of Stalingrad with Rising Storm older $19.99 24,876 93% 746k $15M (exactly $14,918,137) Tripwire Interactive
IRON NEST: Heavy Turret Simulator $19.99 13,278 97% 398k $8.0M (exactly $7,962,817) Nick Nieuwoudt, Dominik Latos
DEFCON older $11.99 3,460 86% 104k $1.2M (exactly $1,244,562) Introversion Software
WW2 Rebuilder older $19.99 1,504 84% 45k $902k (exactly $901,949) Madnetic Games
Cyanotype Daydream -The Girl Who Dreamed the World- older $39.99 710 88% 21k $852k (exactly $851,787) Laplacian
Destroyer: The U-Boat Hunter older $29.99 852 73% 26k $767k (exactly $766,544) Iron Wolf Studio S.A.
Model Builder: Complete Edition older $19.99 1,058 74% 32k $634k (exactly $634,483) Moonlit S.A.
Tank Squad $19.99 847 70% 25k $508k (exactly $507,946) DeGenerals S.A.
My Child Lebensborn Remastered older $7.99 1,299 96% 39k $311k (exactly $311,370) Teknopilot AS, Sarepta Studio AS
Battleship Command · EA $24.99 278 93% 8.3k $208k (exactly $208,417) Bracer
Osta $13.99 347 87% 10k $146k (exactly $145,636) Cup
Sherman Commander $29.99 117 64% 3.5k $105k (exactly $105,265) Iron Wolf Studio S.A.
Ship Explorer $19.99 134 84% 4.0k $80k (exactly $80,360) Turbine Room Studio
D-Day VR Museum $14.99 16 100% 480 $7.2k (exactly $7,195) Lichtblau IT
Of Crowns & Chains · EA $4.99 17 64% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) BlueJayAvis
Tank Simulator $8.99 8 12% 240 $2.2k (exactly $2,158) Imperian Online - Praha

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.