Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + World War II

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a WWII Adventure game?

Adventure + World War II

Of 35 developers who shipped a WWII Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 60 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.0k, ×3.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $7.2M, ×11522 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 60 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 60 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + World War II
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 35
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.5k → $2.4k → $14k → $4.3k → $8.9k → $1.2k → $479 (still earning) → $3.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + World War II: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 35
Bottom 30% $419 (exactly $419)
Median $2.0k (exactly $1,977)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,442)
Top 5% $7.2M (exactly $7,236,052)
Developers, 2 yr 35
Released games 240
Announced 60
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
World War II
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Adventure; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, FPS
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Gore
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 19,917 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $2.0k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $7.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 7 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 60 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sniper Elite 4 older $59.99 54,258 91% 1.6M $98M (exactly $97,648,123) Rebellion
Wolfenstein II: The New Colossus older $39.99 35,277 81% 1.1M $42M (exactly $42,321,817) MachineGames
Company of Heroes 2 older $19.99 68,909 80% 2.1M $41M (exactly $41,324,727) Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive… (Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Sniper Elite 5 older $49.99 24,818 83% 745k $37M (exactly $37,219,555) Rebellion
Men of War: Assault Squad 2 older $29.99 35,744 91% 1.1M $32M (exactly $32,158,877) Digitalmindsoft
Wolfenstein: The New Order older $19.99 46,443 91% 1.4M $28M (exactly $27,851,867) MachineGames
Call of Duty: World at War older $19.99 45,792 92% 1.4M $27M (exactly $27,461,462) Treyarch
Indiana Jones and the Great Circle $69.99 13,058 89% 392k $27M (exactly $27,417,883) MachineGames
Sniper Elite 3 older $29.99 21,407 82% 642k $19M (exactly $19,259,878) Rebellion
Zombie Army 4: Dead War older $49.99 10,028 86% 301k $15M (exactly $15,038,992) Rebellion
Sniper Elite: Resistance $49.99 4,825 75% 145k $7.2M (exactly $7,236,052) Rebellion
TR-49 $6.99 1,197 94% 36k $251k (exactly $251,011) inkle Ltd
Zombie Army VR $29.99 182 44% 5.5k $164k (exactly $163,745) Rebellion, Xtended Realities
Ship Explorer $19.99 134 84% 4.0k $80k (exactly $80,360) Turbine Room Studio
FEAR OF FAITH · EA $9.99 117 78% 3.5k $35k (exactly $35,065) UNBREAKABLE ARK
Dragon Front: Adventures $19.99 58 89% 1.7k $35k (exactly $34,783) High Voltage Software, Inc.
Fuck's Quest II $4.99 133 100% 4.0k $20k (exactly $19,910) Ancient Computer Tech
My Waifu Is A Tank Girl! 💕 $2.99 161 80% 4.8k $14k (exactly $14,442) Neko Cloud
Grizzly Man $8.99 52 90% 1.6k $14k (exactly $14,024) LCB Game Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.