Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based TacticsTurn-Based Tactics + World War II

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a WWII Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics + World War II

Of 24 developers who shipped a WWII Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×2.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $180k, ×299 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 33 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 33 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics + World War II
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $43k → $23k → $19k → $110k → $15k → $4.9k → $629 (still earning) → $480 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics + World War II: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $480 (exactly $480)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,438)
Top 25% $6.0k (exactly $5,998)
Top 5% $188k (exactly $188,037)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 124
Announced 33
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
World War II
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, Tactical
Price point
$7.00 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $7.00.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 1,241 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $5.9k, 1 in 20 over $180k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 8 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 33 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Tactics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TanksFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  2. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced
  3. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  4. + DiceFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  6. + Time ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.4k · 69 announced
  7. + IdlerFair47 devs · median $1.3k · 48 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair55 devs · median $1.0k · 56 announced
  9. + Traditional RoguelikeFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  10. + PsychologicalFair34 devs · median $629 · 40 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair263 devs · median $598 · 308 announced
  12. + PlatformerLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced

All 189 pairs on the Turn-Based Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Company of Heroes 3 older $59.99 24,516 59% 735k $44M (exactly $44,121,445) Relic Entertainment
Valkyria Chronicles 4 Complete Edition older $49.99 5,691 86% 171k $8.5M (exactly $8,534,793) SEGA
Panzer Corps 2 older $39.99 3,512 84% 105k $4.2M (exactly $4,213,346) Flashback Games
Axis & Allies 1942 Online older $19.99 4,810 78% 144k $2.9M (exactly $2,884,557) Beamdog
Panzer Corps Gold older $29.99 2,227 91% 67k $2.0M (exactly $2,003,632) Flashback Games, The Lordz Games Studio
Unity of Command II older $29.99 2,042 79% 61k $1.8M (exactly $1,837,187) 2x2 Games, Croteam
Classified: France '44 older $39.99 844 70% 25k $1.0M (exactly $1,012,547) Absolutely Games
Sumerian Six older $29.99 1,101 94% 33k $991k (exactly $990,570) Artificer
The Troop older $39.99 816 83% 24k $979k (exactly $978,955) Giant Flame
Hex of Steel older $24.99 863 95% 26k $647k (exactly $646,991) War Frogs Studio
Burden of Command™ $24.99 628 83% 19k $471k (exactly $470,812) Green Tree Games LLC
Scramble: Battle of Britain · EA $29.99 209 88% 6.3k $188k (exactly $188,037) Slitherine Ltd.
Forgotten but Unbroken $19.99 249 76% 7.5k $149k (exactly $149,325) Centurion Developments
WEGO World War II: Stalingrad $39.99 18 88% 540 $22k (exactly $21,595) Brian Kelly
Frontline: Assault Corps WW2 $14.99 33 75% 990 $15k (exactly $14,840) Frontline: Games Series
Combat Mission 2: Barbarossa to Berlin $5.99 49 87% 1.5k $8.8k (exactly $8,805) Battlefront.com
WEGO World War II: Overlord $39.99 5 80% 150 $6.0k (exactly $5,998) Brian Kelly
SGS Sealion $24.99 8 100% 240 $6.0k (exactly $5,998) Strategy Game Sudio
Combat Mission: Beyond Overlord $5.99 27 96% 810 $4.9k (exactly $4,852) Battlefront.com
Combat Mission 3: Afrika Korps $5.99 15 100% 450 $2.7k (exactly $2,696) Battlefront.com

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.