Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based StrategyTurn-Based Strategy + World War II

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a WWII Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based Strategy + World War II

Of 27 developers who shipped a WWII Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 37 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $770k, ×1241 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 37 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 37 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Strategy + World War II
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $66k → $19k → $52k → $22k → $5.4k → $6.0k (still earning) → $480 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Strategy + World War II: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $629 (exactly $629)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,398)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $21,595)
Top 5% $779k (exactly $779,220)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 177
Announced 37
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
World War II
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Turn-Based Strategy; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Tactical, Wargame
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 4,831 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $770k.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 9 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 37 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $19k · 17 announced
  2. + Cold WarFair18 devs · median $9.9k · 22 announced
  3. + RomeFair15 devs · median $9.0k · 18 announced
  4. + LootFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.7k · 12 announced
  7. + IdlerFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  8. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  9. + TanksFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  10. + SokobanFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  11. + Top-Down ShooterFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + SpaceFair107 devs · median $1.5k · 143 announced

All 187 pairs on the Turn-Based Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Company of Heroes 3 older $59.99 24,516 59% 735k $44M (exactly $44,121,445) Relic Entertainment
Steel Division 2 older $39.99 8,061 79% 242k $9.7M (exactly $9,670,782) Eugen Systems
Age of History II older $5.99 47,614 89% 1.4M $8.6M (exactly $8,556,236) Łukasz Jakowski
Valkyria Chronicles 4 Complete Edition older $49.99 5,691 86% 171k $8.5M (exactly $8,534,793) SEGA
Ultimate Admiral: Dreadnoughts older $34.99 6,664 62% 200k $7.0M (exactly $6,995,201) Game-Labs
Valkyria Chronicles™ older $19.99 10,832 89% 325k $6.5M (exactly $6,495,950) SEGA
Panzer Corps 2 older $39.99 3,512 84% 105k $4.2M (exactly $4,213,346) Flashback Games
Axis & Allies 1942 Online older $19.99 4,810 78% 144k $2.9M (exactly $2,884,557) Beamdog
Panzer Corps Gold older $29.99 2,227 91% 67k $2.0M (exactly $2,003,632) Flashback Games, The Lordz Games Studio
Unity of Command II older $29.99 2,042 79% 61k $1.8M (exactly $1,837,187) 2x2 Games, Croteam
Company of Heroes 3: Final Stand $29.99 1,015 49% 30k $913k (exactly $913,196) Relic Entertainment
Age of History 2: Definitive Edition $9.99 2,600 83% 78k $779k (exactly $779,220) Łukasz Jakowski
Burden of Command™ $24.99 628 83% 19k $471k (exactly $470,812) Green Tree Games LLC
Scramble: Battle of Britain · EA $29.99 209 88% 6.3k $188k (exactly $188,037) Slitherine Ltd.
Forgotten but Unbroken $19.99 249 76% 7.5k $149k (exactly $149,325) Centurion Developments
SGS Spain at War $29.99 25 88% 750 $22k (exactly $22,492) Strategy Game Studio, Headquarter Warga… (Strategy Game Studio, Headquarter Wargames)
WEGO World War II: Stalingrad $39.99 18 88% 540 $22k (exactly $21,595) Brian Kelly
Frontline: Assault Corps WW2 $14.99 33 75% 990 $15k (exactly $14,840) Frontline: Games Series
Combat Mission 2: Barbarossa to Berlin $5.99 49 87% 1.5k $8.8k (exactly $8,805) Battlefront.com
WEGO World War II: Overlord $39.99 5 80% 150 $6.0k (exactly $5,998) Brian Kelly

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.