Do I ship it?

GamesDating SimDating Sim + World War II

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a WWII Dating Sim?

Dating Sim + World War II

Only 2 developers shipped a WWII Dating Sim in the last 2 years. Over 4 years, 11 did: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 2 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 1 developer shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $280k against a market of $630. 2 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 440.2 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 2 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Dating Sim + World War II
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 4 yr n = 11

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Dating Sim + World War II: Plate 1 · outcomes, 4 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $23k (exactly $22,623)
Median $50k (exactly $50,050)
Top 25% $120k (exactly $120,479)
Top 5% $276k (exactly $276,418)
Developers, 4 yr 11
Released games 35
Announced 2
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
World War II
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Dating Sim
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 4 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 38,095 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 4 years by share: 3 in 10 under $23k, median $50k, 1 in 4 over $120k, 1 in 20 over $270k.

3 in 10 developers made under $23k. 2 games are announced against 1 developer who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Dating Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WarStrong odds8 devs · median $100k · 3 announced
  2. + FMVStrong odds148 devs · median $57k · 111 announced
  3. + Souls-likeStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  4. + AliensStrong odds20 devs · median $6.7k · 15 announced
  5. + PlatformerStrong odds19 devs · median $3.0k · 15 announced
  6. + HistoricalFair39 devs · median $27k · 44 announced
  7. + FPSFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  8. + Post-apocalypticFair29 devs · median $15k · 34 announced
  9. + Quick-Time EventsFair17 devs · median $15k · 16 announced
  10. + Immersive SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  11. + Action-AdventureFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  12. + TacticalFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced

All 142 pairs on the Dating Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Azur Lane Crosswave older $39.99 6,537 68% 196k $7.8M (exactly $7,842,439) IDEA FACTORY, COMPILE HEART, FELISTELLA
Maitetsu:Last Run!! older $34.99 4,425 97% 133k $4.6M (exactly $4,644,922) Lose
Maitetsu:Pure Station older $24.99 3,151 96% 95k $2.4M (exactly $2,362,305) Lose
Hooked on You: A Dead by Daylight Dating Sim™ older $9.99 6,039 90% 181k $1.8M (exactly $1,809,888) Psyop
Cyanotype Daydream -The Girl Who Dreamed the World- older $39.99 710 88% 21k $852k (exactly $851,787) Laplacian
Flowers -Le volume sur ete- older $19.99 1,205 99% 36k $723k (exactly $722,638) Innocent Grey
SEX with HITLER older $6.99 3,358 81% 101k $704k (exactly $704,173) Adolf Games
Sex with Stalin older $5.99 2,217 83% 67k $398k (exactly $398,395) Mova Games
Panzermadels: Tank Dating Simulator older $9.99 1,146 91% 34k $343k (exactly $343,456) DEVGRU-P
your wife $0.99 9,307 95% 279k $276k (exactly $276,418) HaHaHaGame
A Foreign World $19.99 167 84% 5.0k $100k (exactly $100,150) HighbornTiger

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.