Games › Open World › Open World + World War II
Should I ship a WWII Open World game?
Open World + World War II
Only 9 developers shipped a WWII Open World game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Indiana Jones and the Great Circle, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 11 more are announced.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $150k, ×97 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $4.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $27M, ×18303 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 11 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $4.5k (exactly $4,498) |
|---|---|
| Median | $146k (exactly $145,636) |
| Top 25% | $789k (exactly $789,205) |
| Top 5% | $27M (exactly $27,417,883) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 9 |
| Released games | 72 |
| Announced | 11 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $14.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- World War II
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World
- Price point
- $14.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.
The top 10 games average 81% positive over 759,780 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $4.5k. 11 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
Hearts of Iron IV 2016 · $412M 
Battlefield™ V 2020 · $355M 
Sniper Elite 4 2017 · $98M 
Call of Duty®: WWII 2017 · $60M 
Foxhole 2022 · $43M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Hearts of Iron IV | older | $49.99 | 274,901 90% | 8.2M | $412M (exactly $412,269,030) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | Battlefield™ V | older | $49.99 | 236,709 70% | 7.1M | $355M (exactly $354,992,487) | DICE |
| | Sniper Elite 4 | older | $59.99 | 54,258 91% | 1.6M | $98M (exactly $97,648,123) | Rebellion |
| | Call of Duty®: WWII | older | $59.99 | 33,576 71% | 1.0M | $60M (exactly $60,426,727) | Sledgehammer Games, Raven Software |
| | Foxhole | older | $29.99 | 47,330 79% | 1.4M | $43M (exactly $42,582,801) | Siege Camp |
 | Wolfenstein II: The New Colossus | older | $39.99 | 35,277 81% | 1.1M | $42M (exactly $42,321,817) | MachineGames |
 | Sniper Elite 5 | older | $49.99 | 24,818 83% | 745k | $37M (exactly $37,219,555) | Rebellion |
 | Indiana Jones and the Great Circle | $69.99 | 13,058 89% | 392k | $27M (exactly $27,417,883) | MachineGames | |
 | UBOAT | older | $29.99 | 25,568 83% | 767k | $23M (exactly $23,003,530) | Deep Water Studio |
 | Zombie Army Trilogy | older | $44.99 | 14,285 85% | 429k | $19M (exactly $19,280,464) | Rebellion |
 | Sniper Elite: Resistance | $49.99 | 4,825 75% | 145k | $7.2M (exactly $7,236,052) | Rebellion | |
 | SimplePlanes 2 | · EA | $19.99 | 1,316 92% | 39k | $789k (exactly $789,205) | Jundroo, LLC |
 | Age of History 2: Definitive Edition | $9.99 | 2,600 83% | 78k | $779k (exactly $779,220) | Łukasz Jakowski | |
 | Osta | $13.99 | 347 87% | 10k | $146k (exactly $145,636) | Cup | |
 | Fuck's Quest II | $4.99 | 133 100% | 4.0k | $20k (exactly $19,910) | Ancient Computer Tech | |
 | Under a Desert Sun: Seekers of the Cursed Vessel | · EA | $24.99 | 6 100% | 180 | $4.5k (exactly $4,498) | Revolving Gear Studios |
 | Operation Obliteration 2 | $14.99 | 3 0% | 90 | $1.3k (exactly $1,349) | Oblit Gamewerks | |
 | Hentai USSR | $0.99 | 39 87% | 1.2k | $1.2k (exactly $1,158) | Who We Are Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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