Do I ship it?

GamesStrategyStrategy + World War II

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a WWII Strategy game?

Strategy + World War II

Of 66 developers who shipped a WWII Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 112 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.5k, ×7.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $960k, ×1531 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 112 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 112 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + World War II
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 66
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.9k → $4.5k → $28k → $3.1k → $22k → $4.5k → $5.4k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + World War II: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 66
Bottom 30% $1.0k (exactly $1,015)
Median $4.5k (exactly $4,485)
Top 25% $149k (exactly $149,325)
Top 5% $961k (exactly $961,308)
Developers, 2 yr 66
Released games 472
Announced 112
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
World War II
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Strategy; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Tactical, RTS, Wargame
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 28,175 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $4.5k, 1 in 4 over $140k, 1 in 20 over $960k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 7 in 10 of the 44 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 112 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
Hell Let Loose older $49.99 99,628 83% 3.0M $149M (exactly $149,412,112) Expression Games
Sniper Elite 4 older $59.99 54,258 91% 1.6M $98M (exactly $97,648,123) Rebellion
Company of Heroes 3 older $59.99 24,516 59% 735k $44M (exactly $44,121,445) Relic Entertainment
Foxhole older $29.99 47,330 79% 1.4M $43M (exactly $42,582,801) Siege Camp
Company of Heroes 2 older $19.99 68,909 80% 2.1M $41M (exactly $41,324,727) Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive… (Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Call to Arms - Gates of Hell: Ostfront older $34.99 32,183 85% 965k $34M (exactly $33,782,495) Barbedwire Studios, Digitalmindsoft
Men of War: Assault Squad 2 older $29.99 35,744 91% 1.1M $32M (exactly $32,158,877) Digitalmindsoft
Sniper Elite 3 older $29.99 21,407 82% 642k $19M (exactly $19,259,878) Rebellion
Squad 44 older $19.99 18,945 78% 568k $11M (exactly $11,361,316) Offworld
Age of History 3 $9.99 18,102 85% 543k $5.4M (exactly $5,425,169) Łukasz Jakowski
Commandos: Origins $49.99 1,844 79% 55k $2.8M (exactly $2,765,447) Claymore Game Studios
Ground of Aces · EA $29.99 1,415 84% 42k $1.3M (exactly $1,273,076) Blindflug Studios AG
Sudden Strike 5 $49.99 641 75% 19k $961k (exactly $961,308) Kite Games
Company of Heroes 3: Final Stand $29.99 1,015 49% 30k $913k (exactly $913,196) Relic Entertainment
KAISERPUNK $29.99 884 71% 27k $795k (exactly $795,335) Overseer Games
Age of History 2: Definitive Edition $9.99 2,600 83% 78k $779k (exactly $779,220) Łukasz Jakowski
Task Force Admiral - Vol.1: American Carrier Battles · EA $39.99 633 87% 19k $759k (exactly $759,410) Drydock Dreams Games
Burden of Command™ $24.99 628 83% 19k $471k (exactly $470,812) Green Tree Games LLC
63 Days $29.99 413 72% 12k $372k (exactly $371,576) Destructive Creations

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.