Do I ship it?

GamesGrand StrategyGrand Strategy + World War II

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a WWII Grand Strategy?

Grand Strategy + World War II

Only 13 developers shipped a WWII Grand Strategy in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Age of History 3, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.3k, ×2.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $5.4M, ×3622 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 25 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.2 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 25 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Grand Strategy + World War II
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $32k → $52k → $110k → $3.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Grand Strategy + World War II: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,349)
Median $3.3k (exactly $3,293)
Top 25% $124k (exactly $123,737)
Top 5% $5.4M (exactly $5,425,169)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 81
Announced 25
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Grand Strategy
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
World War II
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Grand Strategy; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Wargame, Simulation
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 22,707 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.4k, median $3.3k, 1 in 4 over $120k, 1 in 20 over $5.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Grand Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RoguelikeFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  2. + SportsFair21 devs · median $2.1k · 26 announced
  3. + RogueliteFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  4. + CrimeFair8 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + RacingFair8 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  6. + IncrementalFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 27 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceLong shot21 devs · median $750 · 38 announced
  8. + TabletopLong shot26 devs · median $450 · 26 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $131k · 20 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds59 devs · median $51k · 125 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $37k · 29 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds54 devs · median $34k · 117 announced

All 104 pairs on the Grand Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
Steel Division 2 older $39.99 8,061 79% 242k $9.7M (exactly $9,670,782) Eugen Systems
Age of History II older $5.99 47,614 89% 1.4M $8.6M (exactly $8,556,236) Łukasz Jakowski
Ultimate Admiral: Dreadnoughts older $34.99 6,664 62% 200k $7.0M (exactly $6,995,201) Game-Labs
Age of History 3 $9.99 18,102 85% 543k $5.4M (exactly $5,425,169) Łukasz Jakowski
Panzer Corps 2 older $39.99 3,512 84% 105k $4.2M (exactly $4,213,346) Flashback Games
NEBULOUS: Fleet Command · EA older $29.99 4,074 81% 122k $3.7M (exactly $3,665,378) Eridanus Industries
Panzer Corps Gold older $29.99 2,227 91% 67k $2.0M (exactly $2,003,632) Flashback Games, The Lordz Games Studio
Unity of Command II older $29.99 2,042 79% 61k $1.8M (exactly $1,837,187) 2x2 Games, Croteam
Hearts of Iron III older $9.99 4,962 76% 149k $1.5M (exactly $1,487,111) Paradox Development Studio
KAISERPUNK $29.99 884 71% 27k $795k (exactly $795,335) Overseer Games
Age of History 2: Definitive Edition $9.99 2,600 83% 78k $779k (exactly $779,220) Łukasz Jakowski
Task Force Admiral - Vol.1: American Carrier Battles · EA $39.99 633 87% 19k $759k (exactly $759,410) Drydock Dreams Games
States of Power $11.99 344 88% 10k $124k (exactly $123,737) Sarunas
Victory at Sea Atlantic - World War II Naval Warfare $39.99 92 60% 2.8k $110k (exactly $110,372) Evil Twin Artworks
SGS Battle of the Bulge $24.99 8 37% 240 $6.0k (exactly $5,998) Strategy Game Studio
Territorial Conquest $4.99 22 50% 660 $3.3k (exactly $3,293) Uğur CAN
Of Crowns & Chains · EA $4.99 17 64% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) BlueJayAvis
Battleships and Carriers 2: 1940-1945 $15.99 5 60% 150 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) SLS

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.