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Should I ship a WWII Grand Strategy?
Grand Strategy + World War II
Only 13 developers shipped a WWII Grand Strategy in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Age of History 3, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.3k, ×2.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $5.4M, ×3622 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 25 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.3k (exactly $1,349) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.3k (exactly $3,293) |
| Top 25% | $124k (exactly $123,737) |
| Top 5% | $5.4M (exactly $5,425,169) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 13 |
| Released games | 81 |
| Announced | 25 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $11.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Grand Strategy
- effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
- World War II
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- Grand Strategy; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Wargame, Simulation
- Price point
- $11.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.
The top 10 games average 84% positive over 22,707 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Grand Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + RoguelikeFair
- + SportsFair
- + RogueliteFair
- + CrimeFair
- + RacingFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceLong shot
- + TabletopLong shot
- + Turn-BasedPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Hearts of Iron IV | older | $49.99 | 274,901 90% | 8.2M | $412M (exactly $412,269,030) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | Steel Division 2 | older | $39.99 | 8,061 79% | 242k | $9.7M (exactly $9,670,782) | Eugen Systems |
| | Age of History II | older | $5.99 | 47,614 89% | 1.4M | $8.6M (exactly $8,556,236) | Łukasz Jakowski |
| | Ultimate Admiral: Dreadnoughts | older | $34.99 | 6,664 62% | 200k | $7.0M (exactly $6,995,201) | Game-Labs |
| | Age of History 3 | $9.99 | 18,102 85% | 543k | $5.4M (exactly $5,425,169) | Łukasz Jakowski | |
| | Panzer Corps 2 | older | $39.99 | 3,512 84% | 105k | $4.2M (exactly $4,213,346) | Flashback Games |
| | NEBULOUS: Fleet Command | · EA older | $29.99 | 4,074 81% | 122k | $3.7M (exactly $3,665,378) | Eridanus Industries |
| | Panzer Corps Gold | older | $29.99 | 2,227 91% | 67k | $2.0M (exactly $2,003,632) | Flashback Games, The Lordz Games Studio |
| | Unity of Command II | older | $29.99 | 2,042 79% | 61k | $1.8M (exactly $1,837,187) | 2x2 Games, Croteam |
| | Hearts of Iron III | older | $9.99 | 4,962 76% | 149k | $1.5M (exactly $1,487,111) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | KAISERPUNK | $29.99 | 884 71% | 27k | $795k (exactly $795,335) | Overseer Games | |
| | Age of History 2: Definitive Edition | $9.99 | 2,600 83% | 78k | $779k (exactly $779,220) | Łukasz Jakowski | |
| | Task Force Admiral - Vol.1: American Carrier Battles | · EA | $39.99 | 633 87% | 19k | $759k (exactly $759,410) | Drydock Dreams Games |
| | States of Power | $11.99 | 344 88% | 10k | $124k (exactly $123,737) | Sarunas | |
| | Victory at Sea Atlantic - World War II Naval Warfare | $39.99 | 92 60% | 2.8k | $110k (exactly $110,372) | Evil Twin Artworks | |
| | SGS Battle of the Bulge | $24.99 | 8 37% | 240 | $6.0k (exactly $5,998) | Strategy Game Studio | |
| | Territorial Conquest | $4.99 | 22 50% | 660 | $3.3k (exactly $3,293) | Uğur CAN | |
| | Of Crowns & Chains | · EA | $4.99 | 17 64% | 510 | $2.5k (exactly $2,545) | BlueJayAvis |
| | Battleships and Carriers 2: 1940-1945 | $15.99 | 5 60% | 150 | $2.4k (exactly $2,398) | SLS |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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