Do I ship it?

GamesRTSRTS + World War II

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a WWII RTS?

RTS + World War II

Of 23 developers who shipped a WWII RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 38 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $110k, ×70 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.7M, ×1846 the market median. Revenue is up 70% on the market; 38 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 70.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 70% on the market, 38 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + World War II
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $23k → $108k → $95k → $372k → $110k → $2.5k → $105k (still earning) → $124k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS + World War II: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $2.2k (exactly $2,246)
Median $105k (exactly $105,265)
Top 25% $759k (exactly $759,410)
Top 5% $2.8M (exactly $2,765,447)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 138
Announced 38
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 70% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
World War II
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Tactical, Wargame
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 25,455 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.3k, median $110k, 1 in 4 over $750k, 1 in 20 over $2.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.3k. 5 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 38 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  10. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  11. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds23 devs · median $22k · 48 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
Company of Heroes 3 older $59.99 24,516 59% 735k $44M (exactly $44,121,445) Relic Entertainment
Company of Heroes 2 older $19.99 68,909 80% 2.1M $41M (exactly $41,324,727) Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive… (Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Call to Arms - Gates of Hell: Ostfront older $34.99 32,183 85% 965k $34M (exactly $33,782,495) Barbedwire Studios, Digitalmindsoft
Men of War: Assault Squad 2 older $29.99 35,744 91% 1.1M $32M (exactly $32,158,877) Digitalmindsoft
UBOAT older $29.99 25,568 83% 767k $23M (exactly $23,003,530) Deep Water Studio
Steel Division 2 older $39.99 8,061 79% 242k $9.7M (exactly $9,670,782) Eugen Systems
Age of History II older $5.99 47,614 89% 1.4M $8.6M (exactly $8,556,236) Łukasz Jakowski
Men of War II older $44.99 5,614 60% 168k $7.6M (exactly $7,577,216) Best Way
Ultimate Admiral: Dreadnoughts older $34.99 6,664 62% 200k $7.0M (exactly $6,995,201) Game-Labs
Age of History 3 $9.99 18,102 85% 543k $5.4M (exactly $5,425,169) Łukasz Jakowski
Commandos: Origins $49.99 1,844 79% 55k $2.8M (exactly $2,765,447) Claymore Game Studios
Ground of Aces · EA $29.99 1,415 84% 42k $1.3M (exactly $1,273,076) Blindflug Studios AG
Sudden Strike 5 $49.99 641 75% 19k $961k (exactly $961,308) Kite Games
Company of Heroes 3: Final Stand $29.99 1,015 49% 30k $913k (exactly $913,196) Relic Entertainment
Task Force Admiral - Vol.1: American Carrier Battles · EA $39.99 633 87% 19k $759k (exactly $759,410) Drydock Dreams Games
63 Days $29.99 413 72% 12k $372k (exactly $371,576) Destructive Creations
Trench Lord: Eastern Front $11.99 774 83% 23k $278k (exactly $278,408) Tracer Studio, LING YUN CO.,LTD.
Grit and Valor - 1949 $19.99 274 75% 8.2k $164k (exactly $164,318) Milky Tea Studios
States of Power $11.99 344 88% 10k $124k (exactly $123,737) Sarunas

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.