Do I ship it?

GamesPuzzlePuzzle + World War II

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a WWII Puzzle game?

Puzzle + World War II

Only 10 developers shipped a WWII Puzzle game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Indiana Jones and the Great Circle, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced, ×8.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 2 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $9.6k against a market of $630. 16 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 15.3 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 16 announced, ×8.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Puzzle + World War II
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $4.7k → $59k → $33k → $1.0k
Outcomes for Puzzle + World War II: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $3.9k (exactly $3,892)
Median $9.6k (exactly $9,595)
Top 25% $251k (exactly $251,011)
Top 5% $27M (exactly $27,417,883)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 62
Announced 16
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 80% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data
World War II
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Puzzle
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 89% positive over 14,874 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.9k, median $9.6k, 1 in 4 over $250k, 1 in 20 over $27M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.9k. 7 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 16 games are announced against 2 developers who shipped in the last year, ×8.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Puzzle with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair57 devs · median $8.2k · 53 announced
  2. + Medical SimFair17 devs · median $6.1k · 27 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair40 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair161 devs · median $1.8k · 150 announced
  5. + VampiresFair46 devs · median $1.7k · 37 announced
  6. + CatsFair281 devs · median $1.2k · 334 announced
  7. + DemonsFair233 devs · median $1.2k · 248 announced
  8. + God GameFair27 devs · median $1.2k · 30 announced
  9. + RomanceFair209 devs · median $1.0k · 251 announced
  10. + AutomationFair135 devs · median $1.0k · 164 announced
  11. + Tower DefenseFair64 devs · median $1.0k · 67 announced
  12. + LemmingsFair13 devs · median $959 · 11 announced

All 246 pairs on the Puzzle page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Indiana Jones and the Great Circle $69.99 13,058 89% 392k $27M (exactly $27,417,883) MachineGames
Unity of Command II older $29.99 2,042 79% 61k $1.8M (exactly $1,837,187) 2x2 Games, Croteam
Deadfall Adventures older $19.99 1,307 74% 39k $784k (exactly $783,808) The Farm 51
Miss Neko 3 older $2.99 4,470 92% 134k $401k (exactly $400,959) Double W
Lunar Mirror:The Pavilion of Desire older $9.99 1,329 81% 40k $398k (exactly $398,301) TUTGame
63 Days $29.99 413 72% 12k $372k (exactly $371,576) Destructive Creations
My Memory of Us older $17.99 632 92% 19k $341k (exactly $341,090) Juggler Games
TR-49 $6.99 1,197 94% 36k $251k (exactly $251,011) inkle Ltd
Unity of Command: Stalingrad Campaign older $9.99 808 78% 24k $242k (exactly $242,158) 2x2 Games
Save Jesus older $4.99 1,482 90% 44k $222k (exactly $221,855) Almighty Games
Blitzkrieg Express $4.99 121 74% 3.6k $18k (exactly $18,114) Maksym Melnyk
Salvation: Echoes of War $19.99 16 93% 480 $9.6k (exactly $9,595) Infinite Entropy
Sinking The Boats $6.99 34 94% 1.0k $7.1k (exactly $7,130) 孟夏Mengxia
.redruM $4.99 26 69% 780 $3.9k (exactly $3,892) Paul Alex M Samaniego
Atonement $4.99 7 28% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) 几几不小心, 几几不小心
Through the fog $6.99 2 50% 60 $419 (exactly $419) GDStudio
A Taste of History $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Mama Makes Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.