Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + World War II

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a WWII Sandbox?

Sandbox + World War II

Only 14 developers shipped a WWII Sandbox in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Ground of Aces, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $150k, ×232 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $51k. Revenue is up 135% on the market; 13 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 231.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 135% on the market, 13 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + World War II
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $902k → $59k → $164k → $50k → $789k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + World War II: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $50k (exactly $50,097)
Median $146k (exactly $145,636)
Top 25% $789k (exactly $789,205)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,273,076)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 80
Announced 13
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $19.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 135% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
World War II
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Building, Simulation, Strategy
Price point
$19.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $19.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 7,820 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $51k, median $150k, 1 in 4 over $780k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $51k. 4 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 13 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  4. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  5. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  6. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  7. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  8. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  9. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  10. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  11. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced
  12. + IncrementalFair196 devs · median $748 · 248 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
Foxhole older $29.99 47,330 79% 1.4M $43M (exactly $42,582,801) Siege Camp
UBOAT older $29.99 25,568 83% 767k $23M (exactly $23,003,530) Deep Water Studio
Steel Division 2 older $39.99 8,061 79% 242k $9.7M (exactly $9,670,782) Eugen Systems
Age of History II older $5.99 47,614 89% 1.4M $8.6M (exactly $8,556,236) Łukasz Jakowski
Sprocket · EA older $19.99 12,336 92% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,397,899) Hamish Dunn
Ultimate Admiral: Dreadnoughts older $34.99 6,664 62% 200k $7.0M (exactly $6,995,201) Game-Labs
Total Tank Simulator older $19.99 7,582 81% 227k $4.5M (exactly $4,546,925) Noobz from Poland
Easy Red 2 older $8.99 14,278 90% 428k $3.9M (exactly $3,850,777) Marco Amadei
Sudden Strike 4 older $19.99 6,249 78% 187k $3.7M (exactly $3,747,525) Kite Games
Ground of Aces · EA $29.99 1,415 84% 42k $1.3M (exactly $1,273,076) Blindflug Studios AG
Sudden Strike 5 $49.99 641 75% 19k $961k (exactly $961,308) Kite Games
KAISERPUNK $29.99 884 71% 27k $795k (exactly $795,335) Overseer Games
SimplePlanes 2 · EA $19.99 1,316 92% 39k $789k (exactly $789,205) Jundroo, LLC
Age of History 2: Definitive Edition $9.99 2,600 83% 78k $779k (exactly $779,220) Łukasz Jakowski
Zombie Army VR $29.99 182 44% 5.5k $164k (exactly $163,745) Rebellion, Xtended Realities
Osta $13.99 347 87% 10k $146k (exactly $145,636) Cup
Victory at Sea Atlantic - World War II Naval Warfare $39.99 92 60% 2.8k $110k (exactly $110,372) Evil Twin Artworks
Ship Explorer $19.99 134 84% 4.0k $80k (exactly $80,360) Turbine Room Studio
ShipCrafter · EA $7.99 209 90% 6.3k $50k (exactly $50,097) Myrmecoman

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.