Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + World War II

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a WWII Simulation game?

Simulation + World War II

Of 47 developers who shipped a WWII Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 85 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $15k, ×24 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×2027 the market median. Revenue is up 2600% on the market; 85 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 23.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 2600% on the market, 85 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + World War II
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 47
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $23k → $66k → $32k → $3.1k → $14k → $4.9k → $105k (still earning) → $67k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + World War II: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 47
Bottom 30% $2.4k (exactly $2,398)
Median $15k (exactly $14,840)
Top 25% $188k (exactly $188,037)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,273,076)
Developers, 2 yr 47
Released games 401
Announced 85
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 2600% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
World War II
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Simulation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Wargame, Action
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 26,501 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.4k, median $15k, 1 in 4 over $180k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.4k. 7 in 10 of the 26 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 85 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
Hell Let Loose older $49.99 99,628 83% 3.0M $149M (exactly $149,412,112) Expression Games
Company of Heroes 2 older $19.99 68,909 80% 2.1M $41M (exactly $41,324,727) Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive… (Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Men of War: Assault Squad 2 older $29.99 35,744 91% 1.1M $32M (exactly $32,158,877) Digitalmindsoft
UBOAT older $29.99 25,568 83% 767k $23M (exactly $23,003,530) Deep Water Studio
Sniper Elite 3 older $29.99 21,407 82% 642k $19M (exactly $19,259,878) Rebellion
Red Orchestra 2: Heroes of Stalingrad with Rising Storm older $19.99 24,876 93% 746k $15M (exactly $14,918,137) Tripwire Interactive
IL-2 Sturmovik: Battle of Stalingrad older $49.99 8,749 79% 262k $13M (exactly $13,120,875) FOR-GAMES CR LTD
Squad 44 older $19.99 18,945 78% 568k $11M (exactly $11,361,316) Offworld
Steel Division 2 older $39.99 8,061 79% 242k $9.7M (exactly $9,670,782) Eugen Systems
IRON NEST: Heavy Turret Simulator $19.99 13,278 97% 398k $8.0M (exactly $7,962,817) Nick Nieuwoudt, Dominik Latos
Call to Arms: Panzer Elite · EA $29.99 1,927 69% 58k $1.7M (exactly $1,733,722) Digitalmindsoft
Ground of Aces · EA $29.99 1,415 84% 42k $1.3M (exactly $1,273,076) Blindflug Studios AG
Aces of Thunder $29.99 1,159 57% 35k $1.0M (exactly $1,042,752) Gaijin Entertainment
KAISERPUNK $29.99 884 71% 27k $795k (exactly $795,335) Overseer Games
SimplePlanes 2 · EA $19.99 1,316 92% 39k $789k (exactly $789,205) Jundroo, LLC
Age of History 2: Definitive Edition $9.99 2,600 83% 78k $779k (exactly $779,220) Łukasz Jakowski
Task Force Admiral - Vol.1: American Carrier Battles · EA $39.99 633 87% 19k $759k (exactly $759,410) Drydock Dreams Games
Tank Squad $19.99 847 70% 25k $508k (exactly $507,946) DeGenerals S.A.
Click and Conquer $4.99 2,442 92% 73k $366k (exactly $365,567) SOCKHOUSE STUDIOS

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.