Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Survival

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Survival game?

Survival

Of 3,005 developers who shipped a Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 5,458 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $830k, ×1333 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 5,458 games are announced against 1,785 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 5,458 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 3,005
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7k → $1.8k → $1.3k → $1.6k → $1.3k → $1.1k → $958 (still earning) → $598 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 3,005
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $11,840)
Top 5% $837k (exactly $837,415)
Developers, 2 yr 3,005
Released games 9,580
Announced 5,458
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 2,144,937 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $830k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 1,516 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 5,458 games are announced against 1,785 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Survival

66 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Survival + Cats Fair $1.2k 33 devs
  2. Survival + Dogs Fair $535 20 devs
  3. Survival + Martial Arts Long shot $419 19 devs
  4. Survival + Steampunk Poor odds $78k 10 devs
  5. Survival + Trains Poor odds $24k 16 devs
  6. Survival + LGBTQ+ Poor odds $16k 22 devs
  7. Survival + Mechs Poor odds $12k 24 devs
  8. Survival + Historical Poor odds $8.9k 79 devs
  9. Survival + Naval Poor odds $8.5k 14 devs
  10. Survival + Lovecraftian Poor odds $8.1k 39 devs
  11. Survival + Science Poor odds $7.6k 35 devs
  12. Survival + Farming Poor odds $7.2k 24 devs
  13. Survival + Dinosaurs Poor odds $6.7k 34 devs
  14. Survival + Pirates Poor odds $4.0k 26 devs
  15. Survival + Western Poor odds $3.8k 27 devs
  16. Survival + Snow Poor odds $3.0k 40 devs
  17. Survival + Animals Poor odds $3.0k 12 devs
  18. Survival + Capitalism Poor odds $2.9k 39 devs
  19. Survival + Alternate History Poor odds $2.5k 46 devs
  20. Survival + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $2.4k 455 devs
  21. Survival + Gothic Poor odds $2.4k 23 devs
  22. Survival + Noir Poor odds $2.4k 22 devs
  23. Survival + Romance Poor odds $2.2k 34 devs
  24. Survival + Conspiracy Poor odds $2.1k 22 devs
  25. Survival + Underwater Poor odds $2.0k 50 devs
  26. Survival + World War II Poor odds $2.0k 12 devs
  27. Survival + War Poor odds $1.9k 90 devs
  28. Survival + Military Poor odds $1.9k 88 devs
  29. Survival + Mars Poor odds $1.8k 16 devs
  30. Survival + Dystopian Poor odds $1.8k 75 devs
  31. Survival + Crime Poor odds $1.6k 35 devs
  32. Survival + Medieval Poor odds $1.5k 211 devs
  33. Survival + Psychological Horror Poor odds $1.4k 409 devs
  34. Survival + Cold War Poor odds $1.3k 8 devs
  35. Survival + Hacking Poor odds $1.3k 10 devs
  36. Survival + Mystery Poor odds $1.2k 300 devs
  37. Survival + Horror Poor odds $1.2k 705 devs
  38. Survival + Zombies Poor odds $1.2k 441 devs
  39. Survival + Mythology Poor odds $1.2k 58 devs
  40. Survival + Werewolves Poor odds $1.1k 8 devs
  41. Survival + Female Protagonist Poor odds $1.1k 149 devs
  42. Survival + Nature Poor odds $1.0k 227 devs
  43. Survival + Cyberpunk Poor odds $900 65 devs
  44. Survival + Sci-fi Poor odds $899 485 devs
  45. Survival + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $899 194 devs
  46. Survival + Psychological Poor odds $899 152 devs
  47. Survival + Vampires Poor odds $899 33 devs
  48. Survival + Detective Poor odds $898 49 devs
  49. Survival + Assassins Poor odds $898 17 devs
  50. Survival + Supernatural Poor odds $897 144 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Rust 2018 · $1.4B DayZ 2018 · $582M No Man's Sky 2016 · $567M Valheim 2026 · $418M Dead by Daylight 2016 · $411M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rust older $39.99 1,167,920 87% 35M $1.4B (exactly $1,401,153,624) Facepunch Studios
DayZ older $49.99 387,850 78% 12M $582M (exactly $581,658,645) Bohemia Interactive
No Man's Sky older $59.99 315,054 83% 9.5M $567M (exactly $567,002,684) Hello Games
Valheim $29.99 464,893 94% 14M $418M (exactly $418,264,232) Iron Gate AB
Dead by Daylight older $19.99 685,423 78% 21M $411M (exactly $411,048,173) Behaviour Interactive Inc.
Terraria older $9.99 1,240,388 97% 37M $372M (exactly $371,744,284) Re-Logic
Palworld $29.99 411,947 94% 12M $371M (exactly $370,628,716) Pocketpair
7 Days to Die older $44.99 273,589 87% 8.2M $369M (exactly $369,263,073) The Fun Pimps
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
The Forest older $19.99 581,431 95% 17M $349M (exactly $348,684,171) Endnight Games Ltd
S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl $59.99 106,592 81% 3.2M $192M (exactly $191,833,622) GSC Game World
ELDEN RING NIGHTREIGN $39.99 129,476 83% 3.9M $155M (exactly $155,332,357) FromSoftware, Inc.
SCUM $44.99 98,554 74% 3.0M $133M (exactly $133,018,334) Gamepires
Subnautica 2 · EA $29.99 116,852 91% 3.5M $105M (exactly $105,131,744) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
R.E.P.O. · EA $9.99 341,004 96% 10M $102M (exactly $102,198,899) semiwork
Dune: Awakening $49.99 66,844 71% 2.0M $100M (exactly $100,245,947) Funcom
Scrap Mechanic $28.99 109,429 92% 3.3M $95M (exactly $95,170,401) Axolot Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.