Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + LGBTQ+

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an LGBTQ+ Survival game?

Survival + LGBTQ+

Of 22 developers who shipped an LGBTQ+ Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $16k, ×25 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $51M, ×81796 the market median. Revenue is up 465% on the market; 33 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 24.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 465% on the market, 33 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + LGBTQ+
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $16k → $6.9k → $54k → $90k → $60 → $28k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + LGBTQ+: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $418 (exactly $418)
Median $16k (exactly $15,518)
Top 25% $148k (exactly $148,126)
Top 5% $51M (exactly $51,367,724)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 77
Announced 33
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 465% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
LGBTQ+
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Action-Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Dark, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 86,083 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $16k, 1 in 4 over $140k, 1 in 20 over $51M.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 6 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 33 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dead by Daylight older $19.99 685,423 78% 21M $411M (exactly $411,048,173) Behaviour Interactive Inc.
Marathon $39.99 44,919 81% 1.3M $54M (exactly $53,889,324) Bungie
The Last of Us™ Part II Remastered $49.99 34,252 90% 1.0M $51M (exactly $51,367,724) Naughty Dog LLC, Nixxes Software, Iron… (Naughty Dog LLC, Nixxes Software, Iron Galaxy Studios)
Far Cry® New Dawn older $39.99 32,169 75% 965k $39M (exactly $38,593,149) Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Kiev, Ubisoft… (Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Kiev, Ubisoft Shanghai)
The Walking Dead: The Final Season older $19.99 17,447 94% 523k $10M (exactly $10,462,966) Telltale Games
Dead Rising Deluxe Remaster $49.99 2,971 80% 89k $4.5M (exactly $4,455,609) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Cattails | Become a Cat! older $14.99 2,315 95% 69k $1.0M (exactly $1,041,056) Falcon Development
Monster Prom 3: Monster Roadtrip older $11.99 2,823 98% 85k $1.0M (exactly $1,015,433) Beautiful Glitch
Otome * Domain older $24.99 882 96% 26k $661k (exactly $661,235) PALETTE-QUALIA
Remothered: Broken Porcelain older $29.99 667 62% 20k $600k (exactly $600,100) Stormind Games
Hell Maiden · EA $9.99 1,834 90% 55k $550k (exactly $549,650) AstralShift
Dustland Delivery $7.99 1,264 88% 38k $303k (exactly $302,981) Neutron Star Studio
BrokenLore: UNFOLLOW $19.99 247 73% 7.4k $148k (exactly $148,126) Serafini Productions
Dead in Antares $19.99 189 77% 5.7k $113k (exactly $113,343) Ishtar Games
Anime City · EA $14.99 201 72% 6.0k $90k (exactly $90,390) Shoujo City Developer
Paradise: Musubi $14.99 73 98% 2.2k $33k (exactly $32,828) PIL/SLASH
Femboy Survival · EA $6.99 133 92% 4.0k $28k (exactly $27,890) 2DNiem

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.