Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Survival game?

Survival + Nature

Of 227 developers who shipped a Nature Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 486 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×1.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.4M, ×2322 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 486 games are announced against 126 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 486 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 227
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $1.3k → $898 → $1.0k → $1.2k → $1.0k → $1.2k (still earning) → $629 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 227
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,015)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $18,712)
Top 5% $1.5M (exactly $1,458,377)
Developers, 2 yr 227
Released games 601
Announced 486
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Simulation, Adventure
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 107,380 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $1.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 121 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 486 games are announced against 126 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Far Cry® 5 older $59.99 172,897 81% 5.2M $311M (exactly $311,162,731) Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Ubisoft Sh… (Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Toronto, Ubisoft Kiev)
theHunter: Call of the Wild™ older $19.99 170,472 89% 5.1M $102M (exactly $102,232,058) Expansive Worlds
ICARUS older $34.99 55,849 75% 1.7M $59M (exactly $58,624,695) RocketWerkz
Timberborn $34.99 38,529 95% 1.2M $40M (exactly $40,443,891) Mechanistry
Going Medieval $29.99 17,032 88% 511k $15M (exactly $15,323,690) Foxy Voxel
Ancestors: The Humankind Odyssey older $39.99 9,794 81% 294k $12M (exactly $11,749,862) Panache Digital Games
FAR: Lone Sails older $14.99 24,474 95% 734k $11M (exactly $11,005,958) Okomotive
WolfQuest: Anniversary Edition $29.99 11,511 97% 345k $10M (exactly $10,356,447) eduweb
Eco · EA older $29.99 11,375 80% 341k $10M (exactly $10,234,088) Strange Loop Games
The Wandering Village $29.99 7,734 91% 232k $7.0M (exactly $6,958,280) Stray Fawn Studio
Len's Island $24.99 5,935 82% 178k $4.4M (exactly $4,449,470) Flow Studio
Longvinter $19.99 6,951 68% 209k $4.2M (exactly $4,168,515) Uuvana Studios
Flotsam $24.99 4,308 80% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,229,708) Pajama Llama Games
Everything is Crab: The Animal Evolution Roguelite $9.99 6,876 76% 206k $2.1M (exactly $2,060,737) Odd Dreams Digital
Öoo $9.99 6,575 99% 197k $2.0M (exactly $1,970,528) NamaTakahashi, tiny cactus studio, Tsuy… (NamaTakahashi, tiny cactus studio, Tsuyomi)
The Legend of Khiimori · EA $29.99 1,929 82% 58k $1.7M (exactly $1,735,521) Aesir Interactive, NightinGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.