Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval Survival game?

Survival + Medieval

Of 211 developers who shipped a Medieval Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 403 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $830k, ×1333 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 403 games are announced against 114 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 403 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 211
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.0k → $449 → $2.7k → $1.9k → $8.1k → $1.2k → $1.3k (still earning) → $748 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 211
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,468)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $17,988)
Top 5% $837k (exactly $837,415)
Developers, 2 yr 211
Released games 546
Announced 403
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Base Building, Strategy, Building
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 88,737 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $830k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 7 in 10 of the 113 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 403 games are announced against 114 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
MORDHAU older $29.99 91,678 80% 2.8M $82M (exactly $82,482,697) Triternion
A Plague Tale: Innocence older $39.99 63,166 93% 1.9M $76M (exactly $75,780,250) Asobo Studio
Medieval Dynasty older $34.99 43,074 90% 1.3M $45M (exactly $45,214,778) Render Cube
Wartales older $34.99 32,118 86% 964k $34M (exactly $33,714,265) Shiro Games
Farthest Frontier $34.99 24,444 86% 733k $26M (exactly $25,658,867) Crate Entertainment
Stoneshard · EA older $24.99 34,149 74% 1.0M $26M (exactly $25,601,505) Ink Stains Games
Foundation $34.99 23,037 86% 691k $24M (exactly $24,181,939) Polymorph Games
Banished older $19.99 37,895 90% 1.1M $23M (exactly $22,725,632) Shining Rock Software LLC
Kingdom Two Crowns older $19.99 31,259 90% 938k $19M (exactly $18,746,022) Fury Studios, Coatsink
Kingdoms and Castles older $19.99 30,311 93% 909k $18M (exactly $18,177,507) Lion Shield, LLC
Diplomacy is Not an Option $29.99 10,904 85% 327k $9.8M (exactly $9,810,329) Door 407
Age of Darkness: Final Stand $27.99 9,486 74% 285k $8.0M (exactly $7,965,394) PlaySide
Sengoku Dynasty $29.99 6,592 74% 198k $5.9M (exactly $5,930,822) Superkami
Mandragora: Whispers of the Witch Tree $39.99 3,026 75% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) Primal Game Studio
Becastled $19.99 5,349 81% 160k $3.2M (exactly $3,207,795) Mana Potion Studios
Mirthwood $24.99 2,242 69% 67k $1.7M (exactly $1,680,827) Bad Ridge Games
Blacksmith Master · EA $19.99 2,529 83% 76k $1.5M (exactly $1,516,641) Untitled Studio
Renown · EA $24.99 1,128 53% 34k $846k (exactly $845,662) RDBK Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.