Games › Survival › Survival + Science
Should I ship a Science Survival game?
Survival + Science
Of 35 developers who shipped a Science Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 87 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $7.6k, ×12 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $40M, ×64401 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 87 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $719 (exactly $719) |
|---|---|
| Median | $7.6k (exactly $7,645) |
| Top 25% | $135k (exactly $134,955) |
| Top 5% | $40M (exactly $40,443,891) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 35 |
| Released games | 119 |
| Announced | 87 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $11.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Survival; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Base Building, Building
- Price point
- $11.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.
The top 10 games average 92% positive over 123,029 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $720. 4 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 87 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Survival with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Social DeductionFair
- + Word GameFair
- + CatsFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + DogsFair
- + Martial ArtsLong shot
- + Boomer ShooterLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
Comparable games
The Outlast Trials 2024 · $109M 
ICARUS 2021 · $59M 
Abiotic Factor 2025 · $44M 
Timberborn 2026 · $40M 
The Alters 2025 · $16M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | The Outlast Trials | older | $39.99 | 90,997 92% | 2.7M | $109M (exactly $109,169,101) | Red Barrels |
| | ICARUS | older | $34.99 | 55,849 75% | 1.7M | $59M (exactly $58,624,695) | RocketWerkz |
| | Abiotic Factor | $34.99 | 42,075 95% | 1.3M | $44M (exactly $44,166,128) | Deep Field Games | |
| | Timberborn | $34.99 | 38,529 95% | 1.2M | $40M (exactly $40,443,891) | Mechanistry | |
| | The Alters | $34.99 | 15,330 90% | 460k | $16M (exactly $16,091,901) | 11 bit studios | |
 | Ancestors: The Humankind Odyssey | older | $39.99 | 9,794 81% | 294k | $12M (exactly $11,749,862) | Panache Digital Games |
 | WolfQuest: Anniversary Edition | $29.99 | 11,511 97% | 345k | $10M (exactly $10,356,447) | eduweb | |
 | Eco | · EA older | $29.99 | 11,375 80% | 341k | $10M (exactly $10,234,088) | Strange Loop Games |
 | Stationeers | · EA older | $34.99 | 8,597 88% | 258k | $9.0M (exactly $9,024,271) | RocketWerkz |
 | The Universim | older | $29.99 | 8,465 79% | 254k | $7.6M (exactly $7,615,960) | Crytivo |
 | Forever Skies | $29.99 | 8,138 78% | 244k | $7.3M (exactly $7,321,759) | Far From Home | |
 | Space Engineers 2 | · EA | $29.99 | 5,095 74% | 153k | $4.6M (exactly $4,583,972) | Keen Software House |
 | WolfQuest: Classic | $29.99 | 1,401 90% | 42k | $1.3M (exactly $1,260,480) | eduweb | |
 | Zombie Cure Lab | $24.99 | 393 65% | 12k | $295k (exactly $294,632) | Thera Bytes GmbH | |
 | Atomcraft | $14.99 | 407 94% | 12k | $183k (exactly $183,028) | Triplejump | |
 | Life Below | $29.99 | 150 80% | 4.5k | $135k (exactly $134,955) | Megapop |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.