Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Capitalism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Capitalist Survival game?

Survival + Capitalism

Of 39 developers who shipped a Capitalist Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 53 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×4.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $980k, ×1565 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 53 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 53 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Capitalism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 39
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $629 → $22k → $628 → $2.4k → $19k → $449 (still earning) → $2.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Capitalism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 39
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $2.9k (exactly $2,875)
Top 25% $24k (exactly $23,747)
Top 5% $983k (exactly $983,060)
Developers, 2 yr 39
Released games 88
Announced 53
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Capitalism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Economy, Management
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 7,980 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.9k, 1 in 4 over $23k, 1 in 20 over $980k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 53 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Fallout 76 older $39.99 78,346 74% 2.4M $94M (exactly $93,991,696) Bethesda Game Studios
Eco · EA older $29.99 11,375 80% 341k $10M (exactly $10,234,088) Strange Loop Games
HENPRI $24.99 3,903 96% 117k $2.9M (exactly $2,926,079) Qruppo
Saleblazers · EA older $29.99 1,974 78% 59k $1.8M (exactly $1,776,008) AIRSTRAFE INTERACTIVE
The Walking Trade $11.99 2,733 86% 82k $983k (exactly $983,060) Microwave Games
Rise of Gun older $12.99 1,094 84% 33k $426k (exactly $426,332) PimpGameStudio
This Grand Life 2 $17.99 307 88% 9.2k $166k (exactly $165,688) Poking Water Games
Super Movie Tycoon $16.99 323 73% 9.7k $165k (exactly $164,633) Yuedong Game
Pizza Bandit · EA $24.99 185 82% 5.6k $139k (exactly $138,694) JOFSOFT
Kapital: Sparks of Revolution older $19.99 192 61% 5.8k $115k (exactly $115,142) Lapovich Team
Driving Life $14.99 174 55% 5.2k $78k (exactly $78,248) Chrysopy Games
Fapout 69 ☢️ $14.99 166 54% 5.0k $75k (exactly $74,650) Play and Cum 💦
My Drug Cartel · EA $24.99 48 50% 1.4k $36k (exactly $35,986) Gigicom
ColdRidge $9.99 97 73% 2.9k $29k (exactly $29,071) Frog Collective
Ranchbound · EA $17.99 44 50% 1.3k $24k (exactly $23,747) Eldersong Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.