Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Military

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Military Survival game?

Survival + Military

Of 88 developers who shipped a Military Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 193 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $2.8M, ×4592 the market median. Revenue is up 90% on the market; 193 games are announced against 46 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 90% on the market, 193 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Military
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 88
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $599 → $390 → $772 → $4.8k → $1.8k → $5.4k → $1.5k (still earning) → $2.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Military: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 88
Bottom 30% $419 (exactly $419)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,919)
Top 25% $24k (exactly $23,747)
Top 5% $2.9M (exactly $2,883,538)
Developers, 2 yr 88
Released games 341
Announced 193
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 90% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Military
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Action, Tactical
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 62% positive over 98,536 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $23k, 1 in 20 over $2.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 8 in 10 of the 49 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 193 games are announced against 46 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon® Wildlands older $49.99 99,590 78% 3.0M $149M (exactly $149,355,123) Ubisoft Paris, Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft… (Ubisoft Paris, Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Milan, Reflections, Ubisoft Belgrade)
Escape from Tarkov $49.99 55,824 49% 1.7M $84M (exactly $83,719,253) Battlestate Games
Gray Zone Warfare · EA older $39.99 69,146 72% 2.1M $83M (exactly $82,954,456) MADFINGER Games, a.s.
Counter-Strike older $9.99 169,780 96% 5.1M $51M (exactly $50,883,066) Valve
Counter-Strike: Source older $9.99 135,448 96% 4.1M $41M (exactly $40,593,766) Valve
Tom Clancy’s The Division® 2 older $29.99 32,600 79% 978k $29M (exactly $29,330,220) Ubisoft
UBOAT older $29.99 25,568 83% 767k $23M (exactly $23,003,530) Deep Water Studio
METAL GEAR SOLID Δ: SNAKE EATER $49.99 13,554 82% 407k $20M (exactly $20,326,934) KONAMI
Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® 3 (2011) older $39.99 15,588 90% 468k $19M (exactly $18,700,924) Infinity Ward, Sledgehammer Games
Diplomacy is Not an Option $29.99 10,904 85% 327k $9.8M (exactly $9,810,329) Door 407
Becastled $19.99 5,349 81% 160k $3.2M (exactly $3,207,795) Mana Potion Studios
PIONER · EA $29.99 3,205 62% 96k $2.9M (exactly $2,883,538) GFAGAMES
Pax Autocratica · EA $29.99 3,202 91% 96k $2.9M (exactly $2,880,839) Multiverse
Level Zero: Extraction $19.99 2,446 50% 73k $1.5M (exactly $1,466,866) Doghowl Games
Three Kingdoms Mushouden $24.99 1,876 72% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,406,437) NanBei Studio
ZeroSpace · EA $39.99 1,161 78% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,392,852) Starlance Studios, Ironward
Company of Heroes 3: Final Stand $29.99 1,015 49% 30k $913k (exactly $913,196) Relic Entertainment

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.