Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led Survival game?

Survival + Female Protagonist

Of 149 developers who shipped a Female-Led Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 245 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $480k, ×765 the market median. Revenue is up 50% on the market; 245 games are announced against 82 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 50% on the market, 245 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 149
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.3k → $2.2k → $2.3k → $1.3k → $1.3k → $1.6k → $989 (still earning) → $2.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 149
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $1.1k (exactly $1,076)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $11,988)
Top 5% $480k (exactly $480,119)
Developers, 2 yr 149
Released games 557
Announced 245
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Exploration
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Story Rich, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 68,781 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.1k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $480k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 75 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 245 games are announced against 82 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Resident Evil 2 older $39.99 156,065 97% 4.7M $187M (exactly $187,231,180) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Rise of the Tomb Raider™ older $29.99 127,316 94% 3.8M $115M (exactly $114,546,205) Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Feral… (Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux), Nixxes)
Shadow of the Tomb Raider: Definitive Edition older $39.99 71,706 84% 2.2M $86M (exactly $86,025,688) Eidos-Montréal, Crystal Dynamics, Nixxe… (Eidos-Montréal, Crystal Dynamics, Nixxes, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral interactive (Linux))
A Plague Tale: Innocence older $39.99 63,166 93% 1.9M $76M (exactly $75,780,250) Asobo Studio
Alien: Isolation older $39.99 48,591 92% 1.5M $58M (exactly $58,294,623) Creative Assembly, Feral Interactive (M… (Creative Assembly, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
The Last of Us™ Part II Remastered $49.99 34,252 90% 1.0M $51M (exactly $51,367,724) Naughty Dog LLC, Nixxes Software, Iron… (Naughty Dog LLC, Nixxes Software, Iron Galaxy Studios)
Far Cry® New Dawn older $39.99 32,169 75% 965k $39M (exactly $38,593,149) Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Kiev, Ubisoft… (Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Kiev, Ubisoft Shanghai)
My Time at Portia older $29.99 34,844 91% 1.0M $31M (exactly $31,349,147) Pathea Games
Resident Evil 6 older $19.99 51,420 77% 1.5M $31M (exactly $30,836,574) Capcom
Resident Evil 5 older $19.99 48,521 87% 1.5M $29M (exactly $29,098,044) Capcom
Cairn $29.99 18,224 94% 547k $16M (exactly $16,396,133) The Game Bakers
SYNDUALITY Echo of Ada $39.99 3,303 40% 99k $4.0M (exactly $3,962,609) Game Studio Inc.
The Legend of Khiimori · EA $29.99 1,929 82% 58k $1.7M (exactly $1,735,521) Aesir Interactive, NightinGames
Wicked Island · EA $34.99 1,194 76% 36k $1.3M (exactly $1,253,342) RawDarkness
AETHUS $19.99 2,030 94% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,217,391) Pawsmonaut Games
Resident Evil 3 Nemesis (1999) $9.99 2,329 89% 70k $698k (exactly $698,001) CAPCOM Co., Ltd., GOG.com
Resident Evil 2 (1998) $9.99 2,084 90% 63k $625k (exactly $624,575) CAPCOM Co., Ltd., GOG.com
Hell Maiden · EA $9.99 1,834 90% 55k $550k (exactly $549,650) AstralShift
Resident Evil (1996) $9.99 1,602 90% 48k $480k (exactly $480,119) CAPCOM Co., Ltd., GOG.com

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.