Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Dinosaurs

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dinosaur Survival game?

Survival + Dinosaurs

Of 34 developers who shipped a Dinosaur Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 63 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.7k, ×11 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $550k, ×886 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 63 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 63 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Dinosaurs
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 34
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.3k → $124k → $449 → $8.5k → $34k → $9.6k → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Dinosaurs: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 34
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $6.7k (exactly $6,746)
Top 25% $71k (exactly $70,603)
Top 5% $556k (exactly $556,277)
Developers, 2 yr 34
Released games 110
Announced 63
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Dinosaurs
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, PvE
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 15,901 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $6.7k, 1 in 4 over $70k, 1 in 20 over $550k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 8 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 63 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ARK: Survival Evolved older $14.99 586,768 83% 18M $264M (exactly $263,869,570) Studio Wildcard, Instinct Games, Efecto… (Studio Wildcard, Instinct Games, Efecto Studios, Virtual Basement LLC)
ARK: Survival Ascended · EA older $44.99 106,761 60% 3.2M $144M (exactly $144,095,322) Studio Wildcard, Grove Street Games, In… (Studio Wildcard, Grove Street Games, Instinct Games)
Jurassic World Evolution 2 older $59.99 39,644 90% 1.2M $71M (exactly $71,347,307) Frontier Developments
The Isle · EA older $19.99 111,397 80% 3.3M $67M (exactly $66,804,781) Afterthought LLC
Jurassic World Evolution older $44.99 48,311 87% 1.4M $65M (exactly $65,205,357) Frontier Developments
Jurassic World Evolution 3 $59.99 11,387 93% 342k $20M (exactly $20,493,184) Frontier Developments
PixARK older $19.99 11,142 73% 334k $6.7M (exactly $6,681,857) Snail Games USA
Beasts of Bermuda · EA older $19.99 8,430 69% 253k $5.1M (exactly $5,055,471) Sastrei Studios, LLC
Exoprimal older $59.99 2,581 76% 77k $4.6M (exactly $4,645,026) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Dino D-Day older $9.99 8,039 86% 241k $2.4M (exactly $2,409,288) 800 North and Digital Ranch
FEROCIOUS $24.99 742 63% 22k $556k (exactly $556,277) OMYOG
Deathground · EA $14.99 877 61% 26k $394k (exactly $394,387) Jaw Drop Games
Dino Crisis $9.99 947 80% 28k $284k (exactly $283,816) CAPCOM Co., Ltd., GOG.com
Dino Crisis 2 $9.99 709 87% 21k $212k (exactly $212,487) CAPCOM Co., Ltd., GOG.com
Unknown Tapes $12.99 460 80% 14k $179k (exactly $179,262) Traviteam Games
Collision Course $11.99 303 72% 9.1k $109k (exactly $108,989) Crynosaurs
Dino Path Trail $14.99 197 76% 5.9k $89k (exactly $88,591) Void Pointer
Repterra $19.99 122 90% 3.7k $73k (exactly $73,163) Chute Apps
Dinosaur World · EA $14.99 157 61% 4.7k $71k (exactly $70,603) Dinosaur Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.