Games › Survival › Survival + Snow
Should I ship a Snow Survival game?
Survival + Snow
Of 40 developers who shipped a Snow Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 55 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×4.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $840; 1 in 20 cleared $420k, ×680 the market median. Revenue is up 440% on the market; 55 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $836 (exactly $836) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.0k (exactly $2,997) |
| Top 25% | $54k (exactly $54,412) |
| Top 5% | $427k (exactly $426,765) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 40 |
| Released games | 82 |
| Announced | 55 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 440% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Survival; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Adventure, Action
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 74% positive over 24,478 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $840. 8 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 55 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Survival with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Social DeductionFair
- + Word GameFair
- + CatsFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + DogsFair
- + Martial ArtsLong shot
- + Boomer ShooterLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
Comparable games
Frostpunk 2 2024 · $28M 
Project Winter 2019 · $4.1M 
LOST PLANET® 3 2013 · $1.5M 
Kona 2017 · $1.3M 
The Pale Beyond 2023 · $1.1M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Frostpunk 2 | $44.99 | 20,872 74% | 626k | $28M (exactly $28,170,938) | 11 bit studios | |
| | Project Winter | older | $9.99 | 13,662 84% | 410k | $4.1M (exactly $4,094,501) | Other Ocean Interactive |
| | LOST PLANET® 3 | older | $24.99 | 2,008 64% | 60k | $1.5M (exactly $1,505,398) | Spark Unlimited |
| | Kona | older | $14.99 | 2,795 82% | 84k | $1.3M (exactly $1,256,912) | Parabole |
| | The Pale Beyond | older | $19.99 | 1,858 90% | 56k | $1.1M (exactly $1,114,243) | Saltstone Studios |
 | Fade to Silence | older | $29.99 | 1,032 62% | 31k | $928k (exactly $928,490) | Black Forest Games |
 | Arctico | older | $9.99 | 2,207 70% | 66k | $661k (exactly $661,438) | Claudio Norori, Antonio Vargas |
 | OxyRail | · EA | $14.99 | 949 80% | 28k | $427k (exactly $426,765) | OxygenTech Limited |
 | Near Death | older | $7.99 | 1,010 91% | 30k | $242k (exactly $242,097) | Orthogonal Games |
 | Another Try 2 | · EA | $6.99 | 1,000 53% | 30k | $210k (exactly $209,700) | Hoki Wolf Studio |
 | FROGGY HATES SNOW | $14.99 | 456 91% | 14k | $205k (exactly $205,063) | CRYING BRICK | |
 | Frozen Ship | · EA | $19.99 | 142 76% | 4.3k | $85k (exactly $85,157) | Nionetix |
 | The Pale Mimic | $7.99 | 345 86% | 10k | $83k (exactly $82,696) | Dark Snow Games | |
 | Snow Ash | $14.99 | 179 73% | 5.4k | $80k (exactly $80,496) | Ember Studio | |
 | Frost Survival VR | $14.99 | 161 89% | 4.8k | $72k (exactly $72,402) | Wenkly Studio Sp. z o.o. | |
 | The Black Ice | · EA | $14.99 | 147 77% | 4.4k | $66k (exactly $66,106) | RED CRAB GAMES, Antelus Games |
 | ANGST: A TALE OF SURVIVAL | $7.99 | 227 86% | 6.8k | $54k (exactly $54,412) | Cherrypick Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.