Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Farming

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Farming Survival game?

Survival + Farming

Of 24 developers who shipped a Farming Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 35 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.2k, ×11 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $4.4M, ×7085 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 35 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 35 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Farming
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.9k → $718 → $29k → $4.7k → $3.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Farming: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $3.0k (exactly $2,997)
Median $7.2k (exactly $7,195)
Top 25% $362k (exactly $362,008)
Top 5% $4.4M (exactly $4,449,470)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 45
Announced 35
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Farming
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Base Building, Building, Crafting
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 40,765 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.0k, median $7.2k, 1 in 4 over $360k, 1 in 20 over $4.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.0k. 7 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 35 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Farthest Frontier $34.99 24,444 86% 733k $26M (exactly $25,658,867) Crate Entertainment
Len's Island $24.99 5,935 82% 178k $4.4M (exactly $4,449,470) Flow Studio
Solarpunk™ $22.99 3,492 81% 105k $2.4M (exactly $2,408,432) Cyberwave
Aloft · EA $24.99 3,057 82% 92k $2.3M (exactly $2,291,833) Astrolabe Interactive Inc.
Mirthwood $24.99 2,242 69% 67k $1.7M (exactly $1,680,827) Bad Ridge Games
Among Trees older $14.99 2,071 68% 62k $931k (exactly $931,329) FJRD Interactive
Russian Village Simulator older $29.99 889 84% 27k $800k (exactly $799,833) VD Games, PropilGames
It Lurks Below older $19.99 1,168 81% 35k $700k (exactly $700,450) Graybeard Games
Zombie Graveyard Simulator $14.99 805 89% 24k $362k (exactly $362,008) threeW
Balrum older $14.99 728 78% 22k $327k (exactly $327,382) Balcony Softworks
Backroom Company $8.99 608 81% 18k $164k (exactly $163,978) Hypercent Inc.
Elsewhere · EA $15.99 80 96% 2.4k $38k (exactly $38,376) Four White Cats
Russian Village Simulator 2 $15.99 61 70% 1.8k $29k (exactly $29,262) VD Games, PropilGames
Wild Planet · EA $19.99 41 63% 1.2k $25k (exactly $24,588) MonkeyFactory Media

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.