Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Crime

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crime Survival game?

Survival + Crime

Of 35 developers who shipped a Crime Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 56 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×2.5 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $310k, ×502 the market median. Revenue is up 1170% on the market; 56 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 1170% on the market, 56 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Crime
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 35
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $629 → $22k → $1.9k → $3.6k → $299 → $390 → $3.7k (still earning) → $1.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Crime: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 35
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,559)
Top 25% $8.4k (exactly $8,383)
Top 5% $316k (exactly $315,549)
Developers, 2 yr 35
Released games 97
Announced 56
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1170% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Crime
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Visual Novel
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 6,989 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $8.3k, 1 in 20 over $310k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 56 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Dark Pictures Anthology: The Devil in Me older $39.99 3,778 56% 113k $4.5M (exactly $4,532,467) Supermassive Games
HENPRI $24.99 3,903 96% 117k $2.9M (exactly $2,926,079) Qruppo
CHANGE: A Homeless Survival Experience older $19.99 2,596 91% 78k $1.6M (exactly $1,556,821) Delve Interactive
Hard Time III older $14.99 929 85% 28k $418k (exactly $417,771) MDickie
Misty Judgment $8.99 1,170 92% 35k $316k (exactly $315,549) 次元边界
Evil School $7.99 1,058 92% 32k $254k (exactly $253,603) CineGame Interactive
This Is the President older $14.99 359 67% 11k $161k (exactly $161,442) SuperPAC
BrokenLore: UNFOLLOW $19.99 247 73% 7.4k $148k (exactly $148,126) Serafini Productions
Bum: Revenge · EA $9.99 367 62% 11k $110k (exactly $109,990) Patologgia Interactive
Doorways: Prelude older $9.99 351 58% 11k $105k (exactly $105,195) Saibot Studios
My Drug Cartel · EA $24.99 48 50% 1.4k $36k (exactly $35,986) Gigicom
Paradise: Musubi $14.99 73 98% 2.2k $33k (exactly $32,828) PIL/SLASH
She's Leaving $6.99 41 92% 1.2k $8.6k (exactly $8,598) Blue Hat Studio
CASE RECORDS: Lost Night $4.99 56 46% 1.7k $8.4k (exactly $8,383) Walnut LLC
Eat the Rich: Greed Games $7.99 26 96% 780 $6.2k (exactly $6,232) Maccima Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.