Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Assassins

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Assassin Survival game?

Survival + Assassins

Only 17 developers shipped an Assassin Survival game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Evil School, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150. 25 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper, while revenue is up 415% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 415% on the market, 25 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Assassins
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $809 → $359 → $2.9k → $898 → $1.6k
Outcomes for Survival + Assassins: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $898 (exactly $898)
Top 25% $2.2k (exactly $2,156)
Top 5% $254k (exactly $253,603)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 55
Announced 25
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 415% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Assassins
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Survival; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Multiple Endings
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 1980s, 3D, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 1,303 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $900, 1 in 4 over $2.1k, 1 in 20 over $250k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. All of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Counter-Strike older $9.99 169,780 96% 5.1M $51M (exactly $50,883,066) Valve
Shadow Tactics: Blades of the Shogun older $39.99 30,845 96% 925k $37M (exactly $37,004,746) Mimimi Games
Desperados III older $39.99 11,880 96% 356k $14M (exactly $14,252,436) Mimimi Games
Shadow Tactics: Aiko's Choice older $19.99 3,965 93% 119k $2.4M (exactly $2,377,810) Mimimi Games
The Ship: Murder Party older $9.99 2,556 84% 77k $766k (exactly $766,033) Outerlight Ltd.
West Hunt older $9.99 1,522 84% 46k $456k (exactly $456,143) NewGen
Evil School $7.99 1,058 92% 32k $254k (exactly $253,603) CineGame Interactive
MADiSON VR older $34.99 207 76% 6.2k $217k (exactly $217,288) BLOODIOUS GAMES
The Ship: Remasted older $9.99 462 58% 14k $138k (exactly $138,461) Blazing Griffin
Quest of Dungeons older $4.99 478 78% 14k $72k (exactly $71,557) David Amador
The Lacerator $9.99 161 99% 4.8k $48k (exactly $48,252) Games From The Abyss
ZOMBIE NTR APOCALYPSE $10.99 13 69% 390 $4.3k (exactly $4,286) RaigenGames
Bloody Hills $5.99 16 93% 480 $2.9k (exactly $2,875) Bloody Pitchfork Games
Umbra: Veins of Vengeance $5.99 12 91% 360 $2.2k (exactly $2,156) Leslie Phillips, QuantuMedia
Don't Stop In Red Wood $8.99 6 83% 180 $1.6k (exactly $1,618) Diego Victor
Subzero Stealth · EA $7.99 6 100% 180 $1.4k (exactly $1,438) Verona Interactive
Samurai's Odyssey · EA $7.99 6 66% 180 $1.4k (exactly $1,438) CODEUM GAMES, 11Gen
Lost Dreams $4.99 6 100% 180 $898 (exactly $898) Cat Dreams Ar
The Legend Returns $0.99 19 63% 570 $564 (exactly $564) Juan Marco

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.