Games › Survival › Survival + Mystery
Should I ship a Mystery Survival game?
Survival + Mystery
Of 300 developers who shipped a Mystery Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 568 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $380k, ×616 the market median. Revenue is up 170% on the market; 568 games are announced against 179 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $299 (exactly $299) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.2k (exactly $1,199) |
| Top 25% | $8.4k (exactly $8,392) |
| Top 5% | $387k (exactly $386,845) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 300 |
| Released games | 817 |
| Announced | 568 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 170% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Survival; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Action
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Story Rich, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 84% positive over 43,676 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 137 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 568 games are announced against 179 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Survival with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Social DeductionFair
- + Word GameFair
- + CatsFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + DogsFair
- + Martial ArtsLong shot
- + Boomer ShooterLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
Comparable games
Danganronpa: Trigger Happy Havoc 2016 · $22M 
Alan Wake 2012 · $21M 
Bendy and the Ink Machine 2017 · $16M 
Five Nights at Freddy's 2 2014 · $5.7M 
Deliver Us The Moon 2019 · $5.6M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Danganronpa: Trigger Happy Havoc | older | $19.99 | 36,194 96% | 1.1M | $22M (exactly $21,705,542) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd., Abstraction G… (Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd., Abstraction Games) |
| | Alan Wake | older | $14.99 | 45,662 89% | 1.4M | $21M (exactly $20,534,201) | Remedy Entertainment |
| | Bendy and the Ink Machine | older | $19.99 | 26,232 90% | 787k | $16M (exactly $15,731,330) | Joey Drew Studios |
| | Five Nights at Freddy's 2 | older | $7.99 | 23,871 93% | 716k | $5.7M (exactly $5,721,879) | Scott Cawthon |
| | Deliver Us The Moon | older | $24.99 | 7,510 87% | 225k | $5.6M (exactly $5,630,247) | KeokeN Interactive |
 | Digimon Survive | older | $59.99 | 3,124 78% | 94k | $5.6M (exactly $5,622,263) | HYDE, Inc. |
 | WORLD OF HORROR | older | $19.99 | 8,991 89% | 270k | $5.4M (exactly $5,391,903) | panstasz |
 | The Wild Eight | older | $24.99 | 6,646 69% | 199k | $5.0M (exactly $4,982,506) | Eight Points |
 | Town of Salem | older | $4.99 | 30,882 88% | 926k | $4.6M (exactly $4,623,035) | BlankMediaGames |
 | The Dark Pictures Anthology: The Devil in Me | older | $39.99 | 3,778 56% | 113k | $4.5M (exactly $4,532,467) | Supermassive Games |
 | Len's Island | $24.99 | 5,935 82% | 178k | $4.4M (exactly $4,449,470) | Flow Studio | |
 | The Weeping Swan: Ten Days of the City's Fall | $11.99 | 8,227 58% | 247k | $3.0M (exactly $2,959,252) | 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame) | |
 | HENPRI | $24.99 | 3,903 96% | 117k | $2.9M (exactly $2,926,079) | Qruppo | |
 | Crisol: Theater of Idols | $17.99 | 4,103 85% | 123k | $2.2M (exactly $2,214,389) | Vermila Studios | |
 | METAL GEAR SOLID 4: Guns of the Patriots - Master Collection Version | $29.99 | 2,315 96% | 69k | $2.1M (exactly $2,082,806) | KONAMI | |
 | Öoo | $9.99 | 6,575 99% | 197k | $2.0M (exactly $1,970,528) | NamaTakahashi, tiny cactus studio, Tsuy… (NamaTakahashi, tiny cactus studio, Tsuyomi) | |
 | Hail to the Rainbow | $14.99 | 2,533 90% | 76k | $1.1M (exactly $1,139,090) | Носков Сергей | |
 | Dark Hours | $9.99 | 3,481 81% | 104k | $1.0M (exactly $1,043,256) | Piece of Cake studios | |
 | Feign | $4.99 | 5,270 91% | 158k | $789k (exactly $788,919) | Teneke Kafalar | |
 | Welcome to Elderfield | $17.99 | 1,334 87% | 40k | $720k (exactly $719,960) | Chris Cote |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.