Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Gothic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gothic Survival game?

Survival + Gothic

Of 23 developers who shipped a Gothic Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 37 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $970k, ×1558 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 37 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 37 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Gothic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.4k → $628 → $3.3k → $12k → $1.1k → $1.8k (still earning) → $5.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Gothic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,394)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $11,976)
Top 5% $978k (exactly $978,111)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 74
Announced 37
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Gothic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Survival Horror
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Dark, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 6,040 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $970k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 37 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SUNLESS SEA older $18.99 7,625 83% 229k $4.3M (exactly $4,343,962) Failbetter Games
HENPRI $24.99 3,903 96% 117k $2.9M (exactly $2,926,079) Qruppo
Battlefleet Gothic: Armada (Classic) older $14.99 5,135 68% 154k $2.3M (exactly $2,309,210) Tindalos Interactive
Mad Father older $9.99 6,229 97% 187k $1.9M (exactly $1,866,831) sen
Vampires: Bloodlord Rising · EA $19.99 1,631 70% 49k $978k (exactly $978,111) Mehuman Games
Witch Hunt older $9.99 2,291 88% 69k $687k (exactly $686,613) Gua
Scarlet Tower older $6.99 1,831 81% 55k $384k (exactly $383,961) Pyxeralia LLC
Nosferatu: The Wrath of Malachi older $2.99 1,581 90% 47k $142k (exactly $141,816) Idol FX
Fury of Dracula: Digital Edition older $12.99 213 72% 6.4k $83k (exactly $83,006) Nomad Games
Dead Format $16.99 161 81% 4.8k $82k (exactly $82,062) Katanalevy
Flock of the Seraphim $9.99 162 85% 4.9k $49k (exactly $48,551) GuuchanDev
Silent Slayer: Vault of the Vampire $19.99 41 70% 1.2k $25k (exactly $24,588) Schell Games
When the Light Dies $4.99 80 71% 2.4k $12k (exactly $11,976) Electric Monkeys, Secret Level Studios
Tales of Eden: Midgard $19.99 9 44% 270 $5.4k (exactly $5,397) Steamtrack Studios
Seven Blasphemies $9.99 17 100% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) Crit42 Studio
UNSEEN LAND: INTO THE MIST · EA $13.99 12 41% 360 $5.0k (exactly $5,036) NetOps Inc.
CrimSaw $4.99 24 87% 720 $3.6k (exactly $3,593) SkyBrave

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.