Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Western

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Western Survival game?

Survival + Western

Of 27 developers who shipped a Western Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 34 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.8k, ×6.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $520k, ×832 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 34 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 34 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Western
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $299 → $61k → $359 → $29k → $89k → $2.7k → $11k (still earning) → $18k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Western: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $600 (exactly $600)
Median $3.8k (exactly $3,775)
Top 25% $24k (exactly $23,747)
Top 5% $523k (exactly $522,644)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 77
Announced 34
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Western
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 33,553 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $3.8k, 1 in 4 over $23k, 1 in 20 over $520k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 34 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Fallout: New Vegas older $9.99 211,748 95% 6.4M $63M (exactly $63,460,876) Obsidian Entertainment
Far Far West · EA $19.99 31,458 95% 944k $19M (exactly $18,865,363) Evil Raptor
Desperados III older $39.99 11,880 96% 356k $14M (exactly $14,252,436) Mimimi Games
Blood West older $24.99 6,132 90% 184k $4.6M (exactly $4,597,160) Hyperstrange
This Land Is My Land older $29.99 4,248 68% 127k $3.8M (exactly $3,821,926) Game-Labs
Outlaws of the Old West · EA older $19.99 5,584 58% 168k $3.3M (exactly $3,348,725) Virtual Basement LLC
Hard West older $19.99 4,103 74% 123k $2.5M (exactly $2,460,569) CreativeForge Games
Heat older $19.99 2,612 49% 78k $1.6M (exactly $1,566,416) Code}{atch
Wild West Legacy older $26.99 1,706 39% 51k $1.4M (exactly $1,381,348) Moon Punch Studio
Above Snakes older $24.99 1,574 74% 47k $1.2M (exactly $1,180,028) Square Glade Games
Last Train Outta' Wormtown $11.99 1,453 96% 44k $523k (exactly $522,644) Get(Color) Games
Dino Path Trail $14.99 197 76% 5.9k $89k (exactly $88,591) Void Pointer
Western Rye · EA $21.99 104 53% 3.1k $69k (exactly $68,609) Nixalon Studios
ColdRidge $9.99 97 73% 2.9k $29k (exactly $29,071) Frog Collective
I Want to Believe $16.99 47 80% 1.4k $24k (exactly $23,956) Fang's Lab
Ranchbound · EA $17.99 44 50% 1.3k $24k (exactly $23,747) Eldersong Games
Union Of Rivals · EA $25.49 31 64% 930 $24k (exactly $23,706) 2Play
Bounty Trail $6.99 84 52% 2.5k $18k (exactly $17,615) September Games
WAGON $10.99 38 94% 1.1k $13k (exactly $12,529) de_husk

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.