Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Survival game?

Survival + Dark Fantasy

Of 194 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 393 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $370k, ×604 the market median. Revenue is up 50% on the market; 393 games are announced against 120 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 50% on the market, 393 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 194
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0k → $3.1k → $1.2k → $2.2k → $958 → $900 → $719 (still earning) → $882 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 194
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $12,944)
Top 5% $379k (exactly $379,155)
Developers, 2 yr 194
Released games 496
Announced 393
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, RPG, Roguelite
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 68% positive over 37,189 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $900, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $370k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 8 in 10 of the 84 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 393 games are announced against 120 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
V Rising older $34.99 110,505 89% 3.3M $116M (exactly $115,997,098) Stunlock Studios
A Plague Tale: Innocence older $39.99 63,166 93% 1.9M $76M (exactly $75,780,250) Asobo Studio
Remnant: From the Ashes older $39.99 47,193 84% 1.4M $57M (exactly $56,617,442) Gunfire Games
Stoneshard · EA older $24.99 34,149 74% 1.0M $26M (exactly $25,601,505) Ink Stains Games
Mutant Year Zero: Road to Eden older $34.99 13,305 89% 399k $14M (exactly $13,966,258) The Bearded Ladies
Darkwood older $19.99 22,236 94% 667k $13M (exactly $13,334,929) Acid Wizard Studio
Warhammer: End Times - Vermintide older $29.99 13,662 81% 410k $12M (exactly $12,291,701) Fatshark
Mistfall Hunter $24.99 16,045 53% 481k $12M (exactly $12,028,936) Bellring Games
Age of Darkness: Final Stand $27.99 9,486 74% 285k $8.0M (exactly $7,965,394) PlaySide
ASKA · EA older $24.99 10,457 79% 314k $7.8M (exactly $7,839,613) Sand Sailor Studio
Mandragora: Whispers of the Witch Tree $39.99 3,026 75% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) Primal Game Studio
Dungeon Settlers · EA $24.99 1,117 79% 34k $837k (exactly $837,415) CanOpener
YAR: Forgotten Throne $19.99 1,283 89% 38k $769k (exactly $769,415) Honor Games
DarkSwitch $34.99 714 77% 21k $749k (exactly $749,486) Cyber Temple
Arms of God · EA $11.50 1,871 88% 56k $645k (exactly $645,495) Dark Jay Studio
Onimusha 2: Samurai's Destiny $29.99 663 85% 20k $597k (exactly $596,501) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Hell Maiden · EA $9.99 1,834 90% 55k $550k (exactly $549,650) AstralShift
Sineus Arena Survivors $10.99 1,150 77% 35k $379k (exactly $379,155) Sineus Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.