Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Steampunk

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Steampunk Survival game?

Survival + Steampunk

Only 10 developers shipped a Steampunk Survival game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Frostpunk 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 49 more are announced, ×8.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $78k, ×125 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $28M, ×44858 the market median. Revenue is up 85% on the market; 49 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 124.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 85% on the market, 49 announced, ×8.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Steampunk
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $17k → $23k → $28k → $137k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Steampunk: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $3.0k (exactly $2,997)
Median $78k (exactly $78,213)
Top 25% $137k (exactly $137,158)
Top 5% $28M (exactly $28,170,938)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 52
Announced 49
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 85% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Steampunk
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 65% positive over 34,241 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.0k, median $78k, 1 in 4 over $130k, 1 in 20 over $28M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.0k. 6 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 49 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×8.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Frostpunk older $29.99 114,376 92% 3.4M $103M (exactly $102,904,087) 11 bit studios
They Are Billions older $29.99 46,223 85% 1.4M $42M (exactly $41,586,833) Numantian Games
Frostpunk 2 $44.99 20,872 74% 626k $28M (exactly $28,170,938) 11 bit studios
FAR: Lone Sails older $14.99 24,474 95% 734k $11M (exactly $11,005,958) Okomotive
SAND: Raiders of Sophie · EA $24.99 12,485 49% 375k $9.4M (exactly $9,360,004) Hologryph, TowerHaus
Volcanoids · EA older $19.99 7,679 83% 230k $4.6M (exactly $4,605,096) Volcanoid
SUNLESS SEA older $18.99 7,625 83% 229k $4.3M (exactly $4,343,962) Failbetter Games
Sunless Skies: Sovereign Edition older $24.99 2,661 84% 80k $2.0M (exactly $1,994,952) Failbetter Games
Sir, You Are Being Hunted older $19.99 2,875 79% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,724,137) Big Robot Ltd
Black Skylands older $19.99 2,849 82% 85k $1.7M (exactly $1,708,545) Hungry Couch Games
Steel Artery: Train City Builder $14.99 305 71% 9.2k $137k (exactly $137,158) SoulAge23
Snow Ash $14.99 179 73% 5.4k $80k (exactly $80,496) Ember Studio
Airships: Lost Flotilla $8.99 290 92% 8.7k $78k (exactly $78,213) David Stark
Neuroshima Hex $9.99 93 72% 2.8k $28k (exactly $27,872) Baked Games
Abyss Crew $9.99 10 30% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) PGM Studio, Deep Slap Studio
Factory Train: DreamLine $9.99 3 100% 90 $899 (exactly $899) Unoptimized Bird
Endless Vine · EA $3.99 3 100% 90 $359 (exactly $359) Circuit Root
Drill Crew · EA $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Renvati Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.