Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Simulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Simulation game?

Simulation

Of 8,651 developers who shipped a Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 14,316 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $440; 1 in 20 cleared $520k, ×832 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 14,316 games are announced against 5,579 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 14,316 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8,651
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $3.8k → $3.6k → $2.5k → $2.8k → $2.7k → $1.8k (still earning) → $1.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8,651
Bottom 30% $432 (exactly $432)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,946)
Top 25% $20k (exactly $20,080)
Top 5% $523k (exactly $522,726)
Developers, 2 yr 8,651
Released games 29,960
Announced 14,316
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 961,465 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $440, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $520k.

3 in 10 developers made under $440. 8 in 10 of the 4,802 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 14,316 games are announced against 5,579 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Simulation

78 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Simulation + World War I Fair $32k 23 devs
  2. Simulation + LGBTQ+ Fair $9.7k 272 devs
  3. Simulation + Female Protagonist Fair $5.1k 672 devs
  4. Simulation + Birds Fair $3.8k 19 devs
  5. Simulation + Artificial Intelligence Fair $3.0k 387 devs
  6. Simulation + Music Fair $3.0k 81 devs
  7. Simulation + Underwater Fair $1.8k 142 devs
  8. Simulation + Time Travel Fair $1.4k 42 devs
  9. Simulation + Wuxia Poor odds $152k 15 devs
  10. Simulation + Rome Poor odds $64k 27 devs
  11. Simulation + Villain Protagonist Poor odds $17k 21 devs
  12. Simulation + World War II Poor odds $15k 47 devs
  13. Simulation + Farming Poor odds $14k 100 devs
  14. Simulation + Cold War Poor odds $11k 36 devs
  15. Simulation + Historical Poor odds $8.5k 404 devs
  16. Simulation + Martial Arts Poor odds $8.2k 46 devs
  17. Simulation + Trains Poor odds $8.1k 88 devs
  18. Simulation + Romance Poor odds $8.1k 691 devs
  19. Simulation + Steampunk Poor odds $7.9k 30 devs
  20. Simulation + Horses Poor odds $7.0k 46 devs
  21. Simulation + Military Poor odds $6.3k 308 devs
  22. Simulation + Western Poor odds $6.3k 29 devs
  23. Simulation + Vikings Poor odds $5.4k 11 devs
  24. Simulation + War Poor odds $5.4k 344 devs
  25. Simulation + Lovecraftian Poor odds $5.4k 61 devs
  26. Simulation + Dwarves Poor odds $5.2k 16 devs
  27. Simulation + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $5.0k 227 devs
  28. Simulation + Naval Poor odds $4.6k 71 devs
  29. Simulation + Crime Poor odds $4.2k 206 devs
  30. Simulation + Capitalism Poor odds $3.6k 654 devs
  31. Simulation + Science Poor odds $3.6k 178 devs
  32. Simulation + Dragons Poor odds $3.5k 47 devs
  33. Simulation + Vampires Poor odds $3.4k 39 devs
  34. Simulation + Underground Poor odds $3.3k 105 devs
  35. Simulation + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $3.2k 205 devs
  36. Simulation + Medieval Poor odds $3.1k 499 devs
  37. Simulation + Modern Poor odds $3.0k 379 devs
  38. Simulation + Alternate History Poor odds $3.0k 179 devs
  39. Simulation + Magic Poor odds $2.9k 280 devs
  40. Simulation + Fantasy Poor odds $2.9k 898 devs
  41. Simulation + Pirates Poor odds $2.8k 43 devs
  42. Simulation + Mars Poor odds $2.5k 30 devs
  43. Simulation + Werewolves Poor odds $2.5k 9 devs
  44. Simulation + Hacking Poor odds $2.4k 117 devs
  45. Simulation + Psychological Horror Poor odds $2.4k 963 devs
  46. Simulation + Zombies Poor odds $2.4k 153 devs
  47. Simulation + Thriller Poor odds $2.3k 383 devs
  48. Simulation + Gothic Poor odds $2.2k 46 devs
  49. Simulation + Mythology Poor odds $2.2k 105 devs
  50. Simulation + Noir Poor odds $2.2k 108 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Rust 2018 · $1.4B DayZ 2018 · $582M No Man's Sky 2016 · $567M Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI 2016 · $497M Forza Horizon 5 2021 · $468M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rust older $39.99 1,167,920 87% 35M $1.4B (exactly $1,401,153,624) Facepunch Studios
DayZ older $49.99 387,850 78% 12M $582M (exactly $581,658,645) Bohemia Interactive
No Man's Sky older $59.99 315,054 83% 9.5M $567M (exactly $567,002,684) Hello Games
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI older $59.99 276,113 86% 8.3M $497M (exactly $496,920,566) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Forza Horizon 5 older $59.99 260,218 89% 7.8M $468M (exactly $468,314,335) Playground Games
Euro Truck Simulator 2 older $19.99 756,984 97% 23M $454M (exactly $453,963,305) SCS Software
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
Stardew Valley older $14.99 894,201 98% 27M $402M (exactly $402,122,190) ConcernedApe
7 Days to Die older $44.99 273,589 87% 8.2M $369M (exactly $369,263,073) The Fun Pimps
The Forest older $19.99 581,431 95% 17M $349M (exactly $348,684,171) Endnight Games Ltd
EA SPORTS FC™ 26 $69.99 99,773 50% 3.0M $209M (exactly $209,493,368) EA Canada, EA Romania
Forza Horizon 6 $69.99 86,730 82% 2.6M $182M (exactly $182,106,981) Playground Games
Schedule I · EA $19.99 288,939 97% 8.7M $173M (exactly $173,276,718) TVGS
Microsoft Flight Simulator (2020) 40th Anniversary Edition $59.99 70,073 78% 2.1M $126M (exactly $126,110,378) Asobo Studio
Scrap Mechanic $28.99 109,429 92% 3.3M $95M (exactly $95,170,401) Axolot Games
Sid Meier's Civilization VII $69.99 44,789 48% 1.3M $94M (exactly $94,043,463) Firaxis Games
Escape from Tarkov $49.99 55,824 49% 1.7M $84M (exactly $83,719,253) Battlestate Games
WARDOGS · EA $39.99 58,250 81% 1.7M $70M (exactly $69,882,525) BULKHEAD
MiSide $14.99 122,007 97% 3.7M $55M (exactly $54,866,548) AIHASTO
NBA 2K26 $69.99 25,651 66% 770k $54M (exactly $53,859,405) Visual Concepts

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.