Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Farming

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Farming Simulation game?

Simulation + Farming

Of 100 developers who shipped a Farming Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 121 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $14k, ×22 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.4M, ×3835 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 121 games are announced against 57 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 21.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 121 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Farming
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 100
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.6k → $171k → $57k → $21k → $20k → $7.5k → $8.0k (still earning) → $14k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Farming: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 100
Bottom 30% $2.3k (exactly $2,336)
Median $14k (exactly $13,518)
Top 25% $86k (exactly $85,767)
Top 5% $2.4M (exactly $2,408,432)
Developers, 2 yr 100
Released games 222
Announced 121
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Farming
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Building, Management, Farming Sim
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $22.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $22.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 121,577 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.4k, median $14k, 1 in 4 over $85k, 1 in 20 over $2.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.4k. 6 in 10 of the 45 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 121 games are announced against 57 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Farming Simulator 25 $29.99 39,681 87% 1.2M $36M (exactly $35,700,996) GIANTS Software
Ranch Simulator: Build, Hunt, Farm older $24.99 40,862 79% 1.2M $31M (exactly $30,634,241) Toxic Dog
Dinkum $19.99 24,641 92% 739k $15M (exactly $14,777,208) James Bendon
Fields of Mistria $13.99 31,918 96% 958k $13M (exactly $13,395,985) NPC Studio
STORY OF SEASONS: Friends of Mineral Town older $39.99 5,268 93% 158k $6.3M (exactly $6,320,020) Marvelous Inc.
HARVESTELLA older $59.99 2,071 77% 62k $3.7M (exactly $3,727,179) Square Enix
Rusty's Retirement older $6.99 13,902 96% 417k $2.9M (exactly $2,915,249) Mister Morris Games
Rise of Industry older $29.99 3,122 74% 94k $2.8M (exactly $2,808,863) Dapper Penguin Studios
DORAEMON STORY OF SEASONS older $49.99 1,845 81% 55k $2.8M (exactly $2,766,946) Marvelous Inc., Brownies Inc.
The Farmer Was Replaced $9.99 9,116 95% 273k $2.7M (exactly $2,732,065) Timon Herzog
Solarpunk™ $22.99 3,492 81% 105k $2.4M (exactly $2,408,432) Cyberwave
Aloft · EA $24.99 3,057 82% 92k $2.3M (exactly $2,291,833) Astrolabe Interactive Inc.
Go-Go Town! $27.99 2,476 93% 74k $2.1M (exactly $2,079,097) Prideful Sloth
Doloc Town $19.99 3,166 94% 95k $1.9M (exactly $1,898,650) RedSaw Games Studio
Mirthwood $24.99 2,242 69% 67k $1.7M (exactly $1,680,827) Bad Ridge Games
Outbound $24.99 1,788 73% 54k $1.3M (exactly $1,340,464) Square Glade Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.