Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Lovecraftian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Lovecraftian Simulation game?

Simulation + Lovecraftian

Of 61 developers who shipped a Lovecraftian Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 131 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.4k, ×8.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $970k, ×1558 the market median. Revenue is up 775% on the market; 131 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 775% on the market, 131 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Lovecraftian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 61
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.0k → $6.8k → $80k → $1.3k → $8.8k → $3.0k → $4.1k (still earning) → $23k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Lovecraftian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 61
Bottom 30% $1.4k (exactly $1,435)
Median $5.4k (exactly $5,389)
Top 25% $64k (exactly $64,027)
Top 5% $978k (exactly $978,358)
Developers, 2 yr 61
Released games 146
Announced 131
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 775% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Lovecraftian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Choices Matter, Adventure, Multiple Endings
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Story Rich, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 16,972 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $5.4k, 1 in 4 over $64k, 1 in 20 over $970k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 8 in 10 of the 33 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 131 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Lobotomy Corporation | Monster Management Simulation older $24.99 52,522 94% 1.6M $39M (exactly $39,375,743) ProjectMoon
DREDGE older $24.99 47,624 95% 1.4M $36M (exactly $35,703,713) Black Salt Games
Strange Horticulture older $15.99 14,867 94% 446k $7.1M (exactly $7,131,700) Bad Viking
Cultist Simulator older $19.99 10,496 82% 315k $6.3M (exactly $6,294,451) Weather Factory
The Song of Saya older $14.99 9,382 89% 281k $4.2M (exactly $4,219,085) Nitroplus
Yog-Sothoth’s Yard older $10.99 10,207 93% 306k $3.4M (exactly $3,365,248) Bone Nail
Pathologic 3 $34.99 2,528 80% 76k $2.7M (exactly $2,653,642) Ice-Pick Lodge
Curious Expedition 2 older $19.99 3,861 88% 116k $2.3M (exactly $2,315,442) Maschinen-Mensch
We Need To Go Deeper older $15.99 4,652 86% 140k $2.2M (exactly $2,231,564) Deli Interactive LLC
Strange Antiquities $17.99 3,288 95% 99k $1.8M (exactly $1,774,534) Bad Viking
Menace from the Deep $16.99 2,466 84% 74k $1.3M (exactly $1,256,920) Flat Lab
Worshippers of Cthulhu $24.99 1,305 80% 39k $978k (exactly $978,358) Crazy Goat Games
Gamblers Table $6.99 2,955 74% 89k $620k (exactly $619,664) greenpixels, Bossforge
Static Dread: The Lighthouse $10.90 1,394 90% 42k $456k (exactly $455,838) solarsuit.games
Do No Harm $15.99 896 74% 27k $430k (exactly $429,811) Darts Games
Witchy Business $14.99 865 86% 26k $389k (exactly $388,990) Rogue Duck Interactive
Sunken Engine $14.99 814 80% 24k $366k (exactly $366,056) Two Nomads Studio
The Horror at Highrook $19.99 461 90% 14k $276k (exactly $276,462) Nullpointer Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.