Games › Simulation › Simulation + Birds
Should I ship a Bird Simulation game?
Simulation + Birds
Only 19 developers shipped a Bird Simulation game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Birdwatching Notebook, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced.
Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.8k, ×6.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $720. Revenue is up 270% on the market; 16 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $719 (exactly $719) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.8k (exactly $3,778) |
| Top 25% | $9.3k (exactly $9,281) |
| Top 5% | $476k (exactly $475,924) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 19 |
| Released games | 31 |
| Announced | 16 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 270% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Simulation
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Birds
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Simulation; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Sandbox, Building, Creature Collector
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
- Art
- 8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Colorful, Cozy, Cute
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 94% positive over 2,453 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $720. 9 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 16 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.
Adjacent niches
Simulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomStrong odds
- + World War IFair
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + PinballFair
- + Female ProtagonistFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
- + MusicFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Hatoful Boyfriend | older | $9.99 | 5,533 94% | 166k | $1.7M (exactly $1,658,240) | Mediatonic, Hato Moa |
| | Birdwatching Notebook | $9.99 | 1,588 97% | 48k | $476k (exactly $475,924) | Biekka Games | |
| | SkateBIRD | older | $19.99 | 637 85% | 19k | $382k (exactly $382,009) | Glass Bottom Games |
| | Feather | older | $9.99 | 496 84% | 15k | $149k (exactly $148,651) | Samurai Punk |
| | Nature & Life - Drunk On Nectar | $14.99 | 263 87% | 7.9k | $118k (exactly $118,271) | Venugopalan Sreedharan | |
| | VORON: Raven’s Story | $9.99 | 199 90% | 6.0k | $60k (exactly $59,640) | Merk Games | |
| | Little Aviary | $3.99 | 231 86% | 6.9k | $28k (exactly $27,651) | atomco | |
| | Bird | · EA older | $0.99 | 872 80% | 26k | $26k (exactly $25,898) | Meng Games |
| | Bird Simulator | · EA older | $9.99 | 51 47% | 1.5k | $15k (exactly $15,285) | GameFlare.com |
| | Birdfull | $4.99 | 62 96% | 1.9k | $9.3k (exactly $9,281) | BurGum Games | |
| | Tiny Birdtopia | $8.99 | 34 100% | 1.0k | $9.2k (exactly $9,170) | Burning Star | |
| | Aviarium | $7.99 | 25 68% | 750 | $6.0k (exactly $5,992) | PiqFocus Interactive | |
| | Feather Land | $6.99 | 28 85% | 840 | $5.9k (exactly $5,872) | Peep Nest | |
| | Ostrich Farm | $9.99 | 16 75% | 480 | $4.8k (exactly $4,795) | Hedgehorse | |
| | Birds Hunter | · EA | $17.99 | 7 100% | 210 | $3.8k (exactly $3,778) | Bassel Laoun |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.