Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Birds

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Bird Simulation game?

Simulation + Birds

Only 19 developers shipped a Bird Simulation game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Birdwatching Notebook, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.8k, ×6.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $720. Revenue is up 270% on the market; 16 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 270% on the market, 16 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Birds
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.9k → $719 → $9.3k → $4.8k → $6.0k (still earning) → $5.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Birds: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $719 (exactly $719)
Median $3.8k (exactly $3,778)
Top 25% $9.3k (exactly $9,281)
Top 5% $476k (exactly $475,924)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 31
Announced 16
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 270% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Birds
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Sandbox, Building, Creature Collector
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Colorful, Cozy, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 2,453 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $3.8k, 1 in 4 over $9.2k, 1 in 20 over $470k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 9 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 16 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  9. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  10. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  11. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced
  12. + 4 Player LocalFair69 devs · median $2.1k · 86 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hatoful Boyfriend older $9.99 5,533 94% 166k $1.7M (exactly $1,658,240) Mediatonic, Hato Moa
Birdwatching Notebook $9.99 1,588 97% 48k $476k (exactly $475,924) Biekka Games
SkateBIRD older $19.99 637 85% 19k $382k (exactly $382,009) Glass Bottom Games
Feather older $9.99 496 84% 15k $149k (exactly $148,651) Samurai Punk
Nature & Life - Drunk On Nectar $14.99 263 87% 7.9k $118k (exactly $118,271) Venugopalan Sreedharan
VORON: Raven’s Story $9.99 199 90% 6.0k $60k (exactly $59,640) Merk Games
Little Aviary $3.99 231 86% 6.9k $28k (exactly $27,651) atomco
Bird · EA older $0.99 872 80% 26k $26k (exactly $25,898) Meng Games
Bird Simulator · EA older $9.99 51 47% 1.5k $15k (exactly $15,285) GameFlare.com
Birdfull $4.99 62 96% 1.9k $9.3k (exactly $9,281) BurGum Games
Tiny Birdtopia $8.99 34 100% 1.0k $9.2k (exactly $9,170) Burning Star
Aviarium $7.99 25 68% 750 $6.0k (exactly $5,992) PiqFocus Interactive
Feather Land $6.99 28 85% 840 $5.9k (exactly $5,872) Peep Nest
Ostrich Farm $9.99 16 75% 480 $4.8k (exactly $4,795) Hedgehorse
Birds Hunter · EA $17.99 7 100% 210 $3.8k (exactly $3,778) Bassel Laoun

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.