Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Thriller

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Thriller Simulation game?

Simulation + Thriller

Of 383 developers who shipped a Thriller Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 466 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.3k, ×3.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $570; 1 in 20 cleared $260k, ×416 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 466 games are announced against 225 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.7 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 466 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Thriller
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 383
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.4k → $9.9k → $3.2k → $4.2k → $2.6k → $3.4k → $1.9k (still earning) → $1.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Thriller: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 383
Bottom 30% $564 (exactly $564)
Median $2.3k (exactly $2,338)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $12,688)
Top 5% $261k (exactly $261,104)
Developers, 2 yr 383
Released games 738
Announced 466
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Thriller
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Walking Simulator, Exploration
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 168,278 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $570, median $2.3k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $570. 7 in 10 of the 215 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 466 games are announced against 225 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
MiSide $14.99 122,007 97% 3.7M $55M (exactly $54,866,548) AIHASTO
No, I'm not a Human $14.99 27,222 93% 817k $12M (exactly $12,241,733) Trioskaz
Unheard - Voices of Crime older $6.99 30,978 95% 929k $6.5M (exactly $6,496,087) NEXT Studios
The Mortuary Assistant older $24.99 7,269 92% 218k $5.4M (exactly $5,449,569) DarkStone Digital
The Operator older $13.99 8,515 91% 255k $3.6M (exactly $3,573,746) Bureau 81
Late Shift older $14.99 7,762 86% 233k $3.5M (exactly $3,490,571) CtrlMovie
American Arcadia older $19.99 3,130 94% 94k $1.9M (exactly $1,877,061) Out of the Blue Games
Zoochosis $24.99 2,200 60% 66k $1.6M (exactly $1,649,340) Clapperheads
Ghost Exorcism INC. · EA older $11.99 4,256 76% 128k $1.5M (exactly $1,530,883) StudioGoupil
Five Hearts Under One Roof season2 $22.99 2,149 96% 64k $1.5M (exactly $1,482,165) Storytaco
The Complex: Expedition $14.99 2,620 89% 79k $1.2M (exactly $1,178,214) pgWave
Subliminal $9.99 3,535 74% 106k $1.1M (exactly $1,059,440) Accidental Studios
Staffer Retro : A Supernatural Mystery Quest $24.99 922 89% 28k $691k (exactly $691,223) Team Tetrapod
Millennium Dream $7.99 2,598 92% 78k $623k (exactly $622,741) LucidDreamLab
That's not my Neighbor $2.99 4,498 88% 135k $403k (exactly $403,471) Nachosama Games
WILL: Follow The Light $24.99 527 73% 16k $395k (exactly $395,092) TomorrowHead Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.