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Should I ship a Villain-Led Simulation game?
Simulation + Villain Protagonist
Of 21 developers who shipped a Villain-Led Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 43 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $17k, ×28 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $8.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $380k, ×616 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 43 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $8.4k (exactly $8,392) |
|---|---|
| Median | $17k (exactly $17,270) |
| Top 25% | $72k (exactly $71,976) |
| Top 5% | $387k (exactly $386,826) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 21 |
| Released games | 107 |
| Announced | 43 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $13.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Simulation
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Villain Protagonist
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Simulation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Combat, Strategy
- Price point
- $13.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, Third Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $13.99.
The top 10 games average 72% positive over 2,602 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $8.4k. 6 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 43 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Simulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomStrong odds
- + World War IFair
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + PinballFair
- + Female ProtagonistFair
- + BirdsFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
- + MusicFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + ProgrammingFair
Comparable games
Maneater 2021 · $26M 
Six Days in Fallujah 2023 · EA · $16M 
Untitled Goose Game 2020 · $14M 
Evil Genius 2: World Domination 2021 · $14M 
Dungeons 3 2017 · $11M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Maneater | older | $39.99 | 21,790 87% | 654k | $26M (exactly $26,141,463) | Tripwire Interactive |
| | Six Days in Fallujah | · EA older | $39.99 | 13,012 79% | 390k | $16M (exactly $15,610,496) | Highwire Games |
| | Untitled Goose Game | older | $19.99 | 22,797 95% | 684k | $14M (exactly $13,671,361) | House House |
| | Evil Genius 2: World Domination | older | $39.99 | 11,255 69% | 338k | $14M (exactly $13,502,624) | Rebellion |
| | Dungeons 3 | older | $29.99 | 12,648 93% | 379k | $11M (exactly $11,379,406) | Realmforge Studios |
 | War for the Overworld | older | $29.99 | 6,495 85% | 195k | $5.8M (exactly $5,843,552) | Brightrock Games |
 | Empire of Sin | older | $39.99 | 4,544 49% | 136k | $5.5M (exactly $5,451,437) | Romero Games |
 | Police Stories | older | $19.99 | 7,893 85% | 237k | $4.7M (exactly $4,733,432) | HypeTrain Digital |
 | This Is the Police | older | $14.99 | 9,153 82% | 275k | $4.1M (exactly $4,116,104) | Weappy Studio |
 | Luck be a Landlord | older | $9.99 | 10,213 93% | 306k | $3.1M (exactly $3,060,836) | TrampolineTales |
 | Buggos 2 | $19.99 | 692 83% | 21k | $415k (exactly $414,992) | Intrepid Marmot | |
 | Dungeon Warfare 3 | $18.99 | 679 78% | 20k | $387k (exactly $386,826) | Excidium Inc., Valsar | |
 | TORMENTOR | $29.99 | 287 49% | 8.6k | $258k (exactly $258,214) | Madmind Studio | |
 | Highway Police Simulator | $27.99 | 242 30% | 7.3k | $203k (exactly $203,207) | Z-Software | |
 | Excidio The Kaiju Simulator | $12.99 | 244 92% | 7.3k | $95k (exactly $95,087) | TokuPop | |
 | Fall of an Empire | $29.99 | 80 67% | 2.4k | $72k (exactly $71,976) | JG Games | |
 | Police Officer | $11.99 | 125 65% | 3.8k | $45k (exactly $44,962) | Turquoise Games | |
 | Monstergirl Hunters | $15.99 | 70 94% | 2.1k | $34k (exactly $33,579) | MadoWorks | |
 | Underworld Overseer | $19.99 | 52 90% | 1.6k | $31k (exactly $31,184) | Myron Games | |
 | Psychopathy Assessment | $4.99 | 131 69% | 3.9k | $20k (exactly $19,611) | Tarba Paul Cornel |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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