Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Simulation game?

Simulation + Dark Fantasy

Of 205 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 362 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.2k, ×5.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $700k, ×1118 the market median. Revenue is up 175% on the market; 362 games are announced against 138 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 175% on the market, 362 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 205
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $10k → $9.3k → $4.2k → $26k → $2.3k → $3.0k → $2.5k (still earning) → $6.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 205
Bottom 30% $629 (exactly $629)
Median $3.2k (exactly $3,236)
Top 25% $34k (exactly $33,566)
Top 5% $702k (exactly $701,842)
Developers, 2 yr 205
Released games 485
Announced 362
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 175% on the market, supply 95% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RPG, Adventure
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 53,823 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $3.2k, 1 in 4 over $33k, 1 in 20 over $700k.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 8 in 10 of the 88 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 362 games are announced against 138 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: WARHAMMER II older $59.99 85,134 92% 2.6M $153M (exactly $153,215,660) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Total War: WARHAMMER older $59.99 32,105 79% 963k $58M (exactly $57,779,368) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac))
Age of Wonders 4 older $49.99 16,899 82% 507k $25M (exactly $25,343,430) Triumph Studios
Sultan's Game $24.99 25,061 93% 752k $19M (exactly $18,788,232) Double Cross
Dungeons 3 older $29.99 12,648 93% 379k $11M (exactly $11,379,406) Realmforge Studios
ASKA · EA older $24.99 10,457 79% 314k $7.8M (exactly $7,839,613) Sand Sailor Studio
Exanima · EA older $14.99 12,684 80% 381k $5.7M (exactly $5,703,995) Bare Mettle Entertainment
The Life and Suffering of Sir Brante older $19.99 8,151 89% 245k $4.9M (exactly $4,888,155) Sever, Schisma Games
龙胤立志传 $19.99 7,153 77% 215k $4.3M (exactly $4,289,654) TPP Studio
Reign Of Kings older $9.99 11,838 56% 355k $3.5M (exactly $3,547,849) Code}{atch
Void War $19.99 3,653 94% 110k $2.2M (exactly $2,190,704) Tundra
Slots & Daggers $7.99 7,421 93% 223k $1.8M (exactly $1,778,814) Friedemann
Sir, We Have an Orc Problem $9.99 4,123 86% 124k $1.2M (exactly $1,235,663) Mumpitz Games
Cabernet $19.99 2,025 94% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,214,392) Party for Introverts
Worshippers of Cthulhu $24.99 1,305 80% 39k $978k (exactly $978,358) Crazy Goat Games
Duel Corp. · EA $24.99 1,251 71% 38k $938k (exactly $937,875) Dreameffect Entertainment
Dungeon Settlers · EA $24.99 1,117 79% 34k $837k (exactly $837,415) CanOpener
DarkSwitch $34.99 714 77% 21k $749k (exactly $749,486) Cyber Temple

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.