Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Mythology

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mythological Simulation game?

Simulation + Mythology

Of 105 developers who shipped a Mythological Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 161 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $570; 1 in 20 cleared $420k, ×677 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 161 games are announced against 52 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.4 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 161 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Mythology
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 105
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $25k → $13k → $34k → $897 → $5.4k → $2.4k → $2.7k (still earning) → $2.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Mythology: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 105
Bottom 30% $564 (exactly $564)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,160)
Top 25% $38k (exactly $37,851)
Top 5% $425k (exactly $425,187)
Developers, 2 yr 105
Released games 225
Announced 161
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Mythology
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RPG, Adventure
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 68% positive over 69,477 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $570, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $37k, 1 in 20 over $420k.

3 in 10 developers made under $570. 7 in 10 of the 60 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 161 games are announced against 52 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal older $19.99 190,184 56% 5.7M $114M (exactly $114,053,345) 鬼谷工作室
The Scroll of Taiwu : Beyond The Dome $29.99 56,535 65% 1.7M $51M (exactly $50,864,540) ConchShip Games
WorldBox - God Simulator · EA older $19.99 51,071 95% 1.5M $31M (exactly $30,627,279) Maxim Karpenko
Age of Mythology: Extended Edition older $29.99 31,869 93% 956k $29M (exactly $28,672,539) SkyBox Labs, Ensemble Studios, Forgotte… (SkyBox Labs, Ensemble Studios, Forgotten Empires)
Amazing Cultivation Simulator older $24.99 19,111 85% 573k $14M (exactly $14,327,517) GSQ Games
Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin older $29.99 5,004 92% 150k $4.5M (exactly $4,502,099) Edelweiss
Yog-Sothoth’s Yard older $10.99 10,207 93% 306k $3.4M (exactly $3,365,248) Bone Nail
A Total War Saga: TROY older $19.99 3,324 71% 100k $2.0M (exactly $1,993,403) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac))
The Legend of Khiimori · EA $29.99 1,929 82% 58k $1.7M (exactly $1,735,521) Aesir Interactive, NightinGames
Yaoling: Mythical Journey $19.99 2,854 90% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,711,544) RAYKA STUDIO
美女,请别影响我成仙 $10.99 3,140 93% 94k $1.0M (exactly $1,035,258) 蒸汽满满工作室
Ludus Magnatus: Gladiator Manager Simulator · EA $24.99 612 81% 18k $459k (exactly $458,816) Contec Games
Celestial Empire · EA $19.99 709 89% 21k $425k (exactly $425,187) President Studio
xiuzhen idle $5.99 2,313 79% 69k $416k (exactly $415,646) 游戏养家工作室
Builders of Greece $19.99 537 54% 16k $322k (exactly $322,039) BLUM Entertainment, Strategy Labs
Night is Coming · EA $24.99 387 59% 12k $290k (exactly $290,134) Wild Forest Studio
Builders of Egypt $19.99 461 31% 14k $276k (exactly $276,462) Strategy Labs

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.