Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Steampunk

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Steampunk Simulation game?

Simulation + Steampunk

Of 30 developers who shipped a Steampunk Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 72 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.9k, ×13 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $7.9M, ×12680 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 72 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 12.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 72 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Steampunk
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 30
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $1.7M → $22k → $4.9k → $213k → $6.3k → $6.0k (still earning) → $8.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Steampunk: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 30
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $7.9k (exactly $7,913)
Top 25% $52k (exactly $51,782)
Top 5% $8.0M (exactly $7,962,817)
Developers, 2 yr 30
Released games 108
Announced 72
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 135% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Steampunk
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Resource Management, Strategy, Survival
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 2D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 35,910 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $7.9k, 1 in 4 over $51k, 1 in 20 over $7.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 7 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 72 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Frostpunk older $29.99 114,376 92% 3.4M $103M (exactly $102,904,087) 11 bit studios
Frostpunk 2 $44.99 20,872 74% 626k $28M (exactly $28,170,938) 11 bit studios
IRON NEST: Heavy Turret Simulator $19.99 13,278 97% 398k $8.0M (exactly $7,962,817) Nick Nieuwoudt, Dominik Latos
Volcanoids · EA older $19.99 7,679 83% 230k $4.6M (exactly $4,605,096) Volcanoid
Opus Magnum older $19.99 5,964 97% 179k $3.6M (exactly $3,576,611) Zachtronics
F.I.S.T.: Forged In Shadow Torch older $15.99 6,660 86% 200k $3.2M (exactly $3,194,802) TiGames
Railroader · EA older $29.99 3,343 96% 100k $3.0M (exactly $3,007,697) Giraffe Lab LLC
We Need To Go Deeper older $15.99 4,652 86% 140k $2.2M (exactly $2,231,564) Deli Interactive LLC
Black Skylands older $19.99 2,849 82% 85k $1.7M (exactly $1,708,545) Hungry Couch Games
Airborne Kingdom older $24.99 2,104 86% 63k $1.6M (exactly $1,577,369) The Wandering Band LLC
Amerzone - The Explorer's Legacy $39.99 526 90% 16k $631k (exactly $631,042) Microids Studio Paris
Chocolate Factory Simulator $19.99 355 72% 11k $213k (exactly $212,893) Games Incubator
Steel Artery: Train City Builder $14.99 305 71% 9.2k $137k (exactly $137,158) SoulAge23
Snow Ash $14.99 179 73% 5.4k $80k (exactly $80,496) Ember Studio
Bonaparte - A Mechanized Revolution $24.99 72 68% 2.2k $54k (exactly $53,978) Studio Imugi
ShipShaper: Falconeer Chronicles · EA $8.99 192 96% 5.8k $52k (exactly $51,782) Tomas Sala
The Fool's Apprentice $16.99 42 52% 1.3k $21k (exactly $21,407) The Planar Danse
Lust Poker Club $7.99 89 78% 2.7k $21k (exactly $21,333) Cutie Booty

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.