Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Rome

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roman Simulation game?

Simulation + Rome

Of 27 developers who shipped a Roman Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 39 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $64k, ×101 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $750k, ×1200 the market median. Revenue is up 105% on the market; 39 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 101.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 105% on the market, 39 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Rome
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.1k → $661k → $3.6k → $556k → $160k (still earning) → $2.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Rome: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $3.6k (exactly $3,596)
Median $64k (exactly $63,724)
Top 25% $248k (exactly $248,239)
Top 5% $753k (exactly $753,448)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 83
Announced 39
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 105% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Rome
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, City Builder, Management
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Isometric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 17,850 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.6k, median $64k, 1 in 4 over $240k, 1 in 20 over $750k.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.6k. 6 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 39 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: ROME II - Emperor Edition older $29.99 54,547 87% 1.6M $49M (exactly $49,075,936) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
Imperator: Rome older $39.99 19,492 65% 585k $23M (exactly $23,384,552) Paradox Development Studio
Anno 117: Pax Romana $59.99 12,150 69% 365k $22M (exactly $21,866,355) Ubisoft Mainz
Total War: ATTILA older $19.99 26,918 82% 808k $16M (exactly $16,142,725) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
We Who Are About To Die · EA older $21.99 8,134 88% 244k $5.4M (exactly $5,366,000) Jordy Lakiere
Shieldwall older $17.99 7,148 86% 214k $3.9M (exactly $3,857,776) Nezon Production
Slaves of Rome older $24.99 1,924 73% 58k $1.4M (exactly $1,442,423) Biggus Diccus Games
Citadelum $24.99 1,005 83% 30k $753k (exactly $753,448) Abylight Barcelona
Blackthorn Arena: Reforged $24.99 882 66% 26k $661k (exactly $661,235) PersonaeGame Studio
Field of Glory II older $29.99 705 87% 21k $634k (exactly $634,288) Byzantine Games
Roman Triumph: Survival City Builder $24.99 742 83% 22k $556k (exactly $556,277) Coreffect Interactive
Ludus Magnatus: Gladiator Manager Simulator · EA $24.99 612 81% 18k $459k (exactly $458,816) Contec Games
Pax Augusta $24.99 564 69% 17k $423k (exactly $422,831) Roger Gassmann
Never Second in Rome $12.99 637 81% 19k $248k (exactly $248,239) Alessandro Roberti
Gods of Sand $9.99 720 86% 22k $216k (exactly $215,784) Achenar Studios
Summa Expeditionis $19.99 305 68% 9.2k $183k (exactly $182,908) Lobico Games
Strategos · EA $24.99 233 85% 7.0k $175k (exactly $174,680) Strategos Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.