Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led Simulation game?

Simulation + Female Protagonist

Of 672 developers who shipped a Female-Led Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 754 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.1k, ×8.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $960. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 754 games are announced against 396 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 754 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 672
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.7k → $8.2k → $5.8k → $6.0k → $4.7k → $8.2k → $3.1k (still earning) → $2.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 672
Bottom 30% $959 (exactly $959)
Median $5.1k (exactly $5,097)
Top 25% $41k (exactly $40,509)
Top 5% $577k (exactly $577,269)
Developers, 2 yr 672
Released games 2,235
Announced 754
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Visual Novel
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 216,954 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $960, median $5.1k, 1 in 4 over $40k, 1 in 20 over $570k.

3 in 10 developers made under $960. 7 in 10 of the 382 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 754 games are announced against 396 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  9. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  10. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  11. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced
  12. + 4 Player LocalFair69 devs · median $2.1k · 86 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
EA SPORTS FC™ 26 $69.99 99,773 50% 3.0M $209M (exactly $209,493,368) EA Canada, EA Romania
Slime Rancher older $19.99 139,509 98% 4.2M $84M (exactly $83,663,547) Monomi Park
Spiritfarer®: Farewell Edition older $29.99 47,176 94% 1.4M $42M (exactly $42,444,247) Thunder Lotus
Slime Rancher 2 $29.99 43,590 94% 1.3M $39M (exactly $39,217,923) Monomi Park
My Time at Portia older $29.99 34,844 91% 1.0M $31M (exactly $31,349,147) Pathea Games
STAR WARS™: Squadrons older $39.99 25,086 66% 753k $30M (exactly $30,095,674) MOTIVE
Path Of Wuxia older $34.99 28,286 78% 849k $30M (exactly $29,691,814) 香港商河洛互動娛樂股份有限公司
My Time at Sandrock older $39.99 24,110 88% 723k $29M (exactly $28,924,767) Pathea Games
Maneater older $39.99 21,790 87% 654k $26M (exactly $26,141,463) Tripwire Interactive
Police Simulator: Patrol Officers older $39.99 18,880 75% 566k $23M (exactly $22,650,336) Aesir Interactive
Cairn $29.99 18,224 94% 547k $16M (exactly $16,396,133) The Game Bakers
Road to Empress Ⅱ $18.00 7,773 80% 233k $4.2M (exactly $4,197,420) New One Studio
Streamer Life Simulator 2 $19.99 6,751 81% 203k $4.0M (exactly $4,048,575) Cheesecake Dev
Five Hearts Under One Roof $19.99 5,881 91% 176k $3.5M (exactly $3,526,836) Storytaco
Magical Princess $14.99 7,636 96% 229k $3.4M (exactly $3,433,909) Neotro Inc., MAGI Inc.
Romantic Escapades $19.99 5,587 94% 168k $3.4M (exactly $3,350,524) 蠑螈
Road to Empress I $8.49 11,829 86% 355k $3.0M (exactly $3,012,846) New One Studio
Sweet Home $7.99 9,910 94% 297k $2.4M (exactly $2,375,427) 开心茶房

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.