Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Artificial Intelligence

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an AI Simulation game?

Simulation + Artificial Intelligence

Of 387 developers who shipped an AI Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 490 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×4.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $540. Revenue is up 245% on the market; 490 games are announced against 289 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 245% on the market, 490 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Artificial Intelligence
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 387
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.2k → $3.8k → $1.9k → $2.3k → $2.4k → $6.5k → $2.7k (still earning) → $5.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Artificial Intelligence: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 387
Bottom 30% $538 (exactly $538)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,998)
Top 25% $32k (exactly $32,311)
Top 5% $489k (exactly $488,920)
Developers, 2 yr 387
Released games 958
Announced 490
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 245% on the market, supply 175% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Artificial Intelligence
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Choices Matter, Immersive Sim, Management
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $18.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 124,151 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $32k, 1 in 20 over $480k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 147 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 490 games are announced against 289 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  10. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  11. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced
  12. + 4 Player LocalFair69 devs · median $2.1k · 86 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Assetto Corsa older $19.99 136,067 92% 4.1M $82M (exactly $81,599,380) Kunos Simulazioni
WorldBox - God Simulator · EA older $19.99 51,071 95% 1.5M $31M (exactly $30,627,279) Maxim Karpenko
The Talos Principle older $29.99 29,237 95% 877k $26M (exactly $26,304,529) Croteam
Anno 117: Pax Romana $59.99 12,150 69% 365k $22M (exactly $21,866,355) Ubisoft Mainz
Jurassic World Evolution 3 $59.99 11,387 93% 342k $20M (exactly $20,493,184) Frontier Developments
Assetto Corsa EVO · EA $39.99 16,545 60% 496k $20M (exactly $19,849,036) KUNOS Simulazioni
VTOL VR older $29.99 19,885 98% 597k $18M (exactly $17,890,534) Boundless Dynamics, LLC
From the Depths older $24.99 11,059 89% 332k $8.3M (exactly $8,290,932) Brilliant Skies Ltd.
Starship Troopers: Terran Command older $29.99 9,214 87% 276k $8.3M (exactly $8,289,836) The Artistocrats
Wobbledogs older $19.99 13,770 98% 413k $8.3M (exactly $8,257,869) Animal Uprising
ReStory: Chill Electronics Repairs $19.99 9,209 95% 276k $5.5M (exactly $5,522,637) Mandragora
EA SPORTS™ College Football 27 $69.99 2,583 40% 77k $5.4M (exactly $5,423,525) Tiburon
Librarian: Tidy Up the Arcane Library! $5.99 24,497 94% 735k $4.4M (exactly $4,402,111) ArtRising
Road to Empress Ⅱ $18.00 7,773 80% 233k $4.2M (exactly $4,197,420) New One Studio
Fast Food Simulator · EA $14.99 8,653 86% 260k $3.9M (exactly $3,891,254) No Ceiling Games
The Farmer Was Replaced $9.99 9,116 95% 273k $2.7M (exactly $2,732,065) Timon Herzog
BidKing $2.99 22,238 33% 667k $2.0M (exactly $1,994,749) MindSurge Network & Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.