Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Werewolves

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Werewolf Simulation game?

Simulation + Werewolves

Only 9 developers shipped a Werewolf Simulation game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Anthro Heat, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×4.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $510; 1 in 20 cleared $560k, ×901 the market median. Revenue is up 8280% on the market; 21 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 8280% on the market, 21 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Werewolves
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.1k → $77k → $2.5k
Outcomes for Simulation + Werewolves: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $505 (exactly $505)
Median $2.5k (exactly $2,516)
Top 25% $42k (exactly $42,085)
Top 5% $566k (exactly $565,911)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 31
Announced 21
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 8280% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Werewolves
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation
Price point
$5.00 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 9,204 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $510, median $2.5k, 1 in 4 over $42k, 1 in 20 over $560k.

3 in 10 developers made under $510. 21 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
KeeperRL older $19.99 1,677 83% 50k $1.0M (exactly $1,005,697) Electric Succubi
Anthro Heat $29.99 629 92% 19k $566k (exactly $565,911) Blue Lizard Studios
Necrosmith older $2.99 4,885 85% 147k $438k (exactly $438,185) Alawar
Night is Coming · EA $24.99 387 59% 12k $290k (exactly $290,134) Wild Forest Studio
The Seven Realms - Realm 1: Terran older $9.99 708 81% 21k $212k (exactly $212,188) SeptCloud Games
Werewolves Within™ older $19.99 135 65% 4.1k $81k (exactly $80,960) Ubisoft
Pomberito older $5.99 427 93% 13k $77k (exactly $76,732) Lara the Pitbull
A College of Thirst & Claws · EA $11.99 117 73% 3.5k $42k (exactly $42,085) SeptCloud Games
Barking from the Dark $3.99 197 88% 5.9k $24k (exactly $23,581) shoftArt
EmyLiveShow: Dragon & Mistresses Tale older $6.99 42 76% 1.3k $8.8k (exactly $8,807) Team Emily
Al Mara Academy $6.99 12 66% 360 $2.5k (exactly $2,516) Quiet Coven Games
Hunter Hunted $5.00 8 100% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,200) Chthonic Chrome Studio
Cozy Night $0.99 17 100% 510 $505 (exactly $505) MaintainGames
Part Of My Heart $2.99 1 0% 30 $90 (exactly $90) Dee Odd Games
Huiyu Undercover $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Huiyu, www.huiyu.ai

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.