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Should I ship a Science Simulation game?
Simulation + Science
Of 178 developers who shipped a Science Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 259 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×5.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $970k, ×1550 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 259 games are announced against 120 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $419 (exactly $419) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.6k (exactly $3,568) |
| Top 25% | $33k (exactly $32,908) |
| Top 5% | $973k (exactly $973,313) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 178 |
| Released games | 542 |
| Announced | 259 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 105% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Simulation
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Science
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Simulation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Sandbox, Building, Management
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 94% positive over 117,363 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $420. 7 in 10 of the 73 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 259 games are announced against 120 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Simulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomStrong odds
- + World War IFair
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + PinballFair
- + Female ProtagonistFair
- + BirdsFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
- + MusicFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + ProgrammingFair
Comparable games
Kerbal Space Program 2015 · $145M 
Abiotic Factor 2025 · $44M 
Kerbal Space Program 2 2023 · EA · $42M 
Timberborn 2026 · $40M 
SPORE™ 2008 · $40M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Kerbal Space Program | older | $39.99 | 120,656 95% | 3.6M | $145M (exactly $144,751,003) | Squad |
| | Abiotic Factor | $34.99 | 42,075 95% | 1.3M | $44M (exactly $44,166,128) | Deep Field Games | |
| | Kerbal Space Program 2 | · EA older | $49.99 | 27,930 26% | 838k | $42M (exactly $41,886,621) | Intercept Games |
| | Timberborn | $34.99 | 38,529 95% | 1.2M | $40M (exactly $40,443,891) | Mechanistry | |
| | SPORE™ | older | $19.99 | 66,871 92% | 2.0M | $40M (exactly $40,102,539) | Maxis™ |
 | The Talos Principle | older | $29.99 | 29,237 95% | 877k | $26M (exactly $26,304,529) | Croteam |
 | Forza Motorsport | older | $69.99 | 12,148 51% | 364k | $26M (exactly $25,507,156) | Turn 10 |
 | Universe Sandbox | · EA older | $29.99 | 27,843 96% | 835k | $25M (exactly $25,050,347) | Giant Army |
 | Automation - The Car Company Tycoon Game | · EA older | $29.99 | 16,815 93% | 504k | $15M (exactly $15,128,456) | Camshaft Software Ltd |
 | SpaceEngine | · EA older | $29.99 | 15,826 96% | 475k | $14M (exactly $14,238,652) | Cosmographic Software |
 | WolfQuest: Anniversary Edition | $29.99 | 11,511 97% | 345k | $10M (exactly $10,356,447) | eduweb | |
 | Space Engineers 2 | · EA | $29.99 | 5,095 74% | 153k | $4.6M (exactly $4,583,972) | Keen Software House |
 | Aviassembly | · EA | $9.99 | 9,323 96% | 280k | $2.8M (exactly $2,794,103) | Jelle Booij |
 | Mars First Logistics | $19.99 | 3,497 94% | 105k | $2.1M (exactly $2,097,151) | Shape Shop | |
 | Star Birds | · EA | $19.99 | 2,990 92% | 90k | $1.8M (exactly $1,793,103) | Toukana Interactive |
 | Reentry - A Space Flight Simulator | $34.99 | 1,319 97% | 40k | $1.4M (exactly $1,384,554) | Lyra Creative | |
 | WolfQuest: Classic | $29.99 | 1,401 90% | 42k | $1.3M (exactly $1,260,480) | eduweb | |
 | The Last Starship | $19.99 | 1,623 75% | 49k | $973k (exactly $973,313) | Introversion Software |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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