Games › Simulation › Simulation + Trains
Should I ship a Train Simulation game?
Simulation + Trains
Of 88 developers who shipped a Train Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 137 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $8.1k, ×13 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×2693 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 137 games are announced against 58 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.4k (exactly $1,439) |
|---|---|
| Median | $8.1k (exactly $8,095) |
| Top 25% | $85k (exactly $84,515) |
| Top 5% | $1.7M (exactly $1,691,422) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 88 |
| Released games | 304 |
| Announced | 137 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Simulation
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Trains
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Simulation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Transportation, Sandbox, Exploration
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 81% positive over 33,042 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 6 in 10 of the 37 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 137 games are announced against 58 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Simulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomStrong odds
- + World War IFair
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + PinballFair
- + Female ProtagonistFair
- + BirdsFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
- + MusicFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + ProgrammingFair
Comparable games
Factorio 2020 · $201M 
Transport Fever 2 2019 · $32M 
Train Simulator Classic 2015 · $18M 
Captain of Industry 2022 · EA · $12M 
Derail Valley 2019 · EA · $11M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Factorio | older | $35.00 | 191,814 97% | 5.8M | $201M (exactly $201,404,700) | Wube Software LTD. |
| | Transport Fever 2 | older | $39.99 | 26,714 89% | 801k | $32M (exactly $32,048,786) | Urban Games |
| | Train Simulator Classic | older | $29.99 | 19,461 73% | 584k | $18M (exactly $17,509,062) | Dovetail Games |
| | Captain of Industry | · EA older | $34.99 | 11,027 90% | 331k | $12M (exactly $11,575,042) | MaFi Games |
| | Derail Valley | · EA older | $39.99 | 9,442 96% | 283k | $11M (exactly $11,327,567) | Altfuture |
 | Transport Fever | older | $29.99 | 9,278 82% | 278k | $8.3M (exactly $8,347,417) | Urban Games |
 | Voidtrain | $29.99 | 8,713 73% | 261k | $7.8M (exactly $7,839,086) | HypeTrain Digital | |
 | Railway Empire | older | $29.99 | 7,219 82% | 217k | $6.5M (exactly $6,494,934) | Gaming Minds Studios |
 | SimRail - The Railway Simulator | $34.99 | 5,307 85% | 159k | $5.6M (exactly $5,570,758) | SimRail S.A. | |
 | Train Sim World® 2 | older | $19.99 | 7,066 82% | 212k | $4.2M (exactly $4,237,480) | Dovetail Games |
 | Train Sim World® 6 | $49.99 | 2,485 78% | 75k | $3.7M (exactly $3,726,754) | Dovetail Games | |
 | Train Sim World® 5 | $39.99 | 3,028 80% | 91k | $3.6M (exactly $3,632,692) | Dovetail Games | |
 | Beholder: Conductor | $13.99 | 4,532 91% | 136k | $1.9M (exactly $1,902,080) | Alawar | |
 | Plan B: Terraform | $15.99 | 3,526 91% | 106k | $1.7M (exactly $1,691,422) | Gaddy Games | |
 | Zoochosis | $24.99 | 2,200 60% | 66k | $1.6M (exactly $1,649,340) | Clapperheads | |
 | Thomas & Friends™: Wonders of Sodor | $39.99 | 849 87% | 25k | $1.0M (exactly $1,018,545) | Dovetail Games | |
 | RUNNING TRAIN | 走ル列車！ | · EA | $19.99 | 1,594 97% | 48k | $956k (exactly $955,922) | Novatetsu Games |
 | SubwaySim 2 | $34.99 | 808 82% | 24k | $848k (exactly $848,158) | Simuverse Interactive |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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