Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Capitalism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Capitalist Simulation game?

Simulation + Capitalism

Of 654 developers who shipped a Capitalist Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 993 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×5.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $480k, ×768 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 993 games are announced against 455 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 993 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Capitalism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 654
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.3k → $8.8k → $4.3k → $7.0k → $11k → $8.8k → $3.0k (still earning) → $1.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Capitalism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 654
Bottom 30% $719 (exactly $719)
Median $3.6k (exactly $3,596)
Top 25% $32k (exactly $32,202)
Top 5% $482k (exactly $482,483)
Developers, 2 yr 654
Released games 1,245
Announced 993
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 105% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Capitalism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Management, Economy, Resource Management
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 198,321 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $3.6k, 1 in 4 over $32k, 1 in 20 over $480k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 7 in 10 of the 279 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 993 games are announced against 455 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Victoria 3 older $49.99 41,251 71% 1.2M $62M (exactly $61,864,125) Paradox Development Studio
Prison Architect older $29.99 59,802 89% 1.8M $54M (exactly $53,803,859) Introversion Software, Double Eleven
Supermarket Simulator $19.99 79,236 92% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,517,829) Nokta Games
TCG Card Shop Simulator $19.99 47,357 96% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,399,993) OPNeon Games
Tropico 6 older $39.99 19,837 88% 595k $24M (exactly $23,798,449) Limbic Entertainment, Realmforge Studios
Potion Craft: Alchemist Simulator older $19.99 37,870 92% 1.1M $23M (exactly $22,710,639) niceplay games
Le Mans Ultimate $39.99 15,068 79% 452k $18M (exactly $18,077,080) Studio 397
Cruelty Squad older $19.99 23,209 96% 696k $14M (exactly $13,918,437) Consumer Softproducts
Big Ambitions $25.99 14,003 92% 420k $11M (exactly $10,918,139) Hovgaard Games
Eco · EA older $29.99 11,375 80% 341k $10M (exactly $10,234,088) Strange Loop Games
Waterpark Simulator $12.99 13,280 96% 398k $5.2M (exactly $5,175,216) CayPlay
News Tower $24.99 4,316 94% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,235,705) Sparrow Night
Scritchy Scratchy $6.99 15,245 94% 457k $3.2M (exactly $3,196,876) Lunch Money Games
Storage Hunter Simulator $24.99 3,866 78% 116k $2.9M (exactly $2,898,340) Raccoons Studio
Psycho Patrol R · EA $39.99 2,090 88% 63k $2.5M (exactly $2,507,373) Consumer Softproducts
Esports Manager 2026 $19.99 3,860 73% 116k $2.3M (exactly $2,314,842) Neurona Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.