Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Vampires

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Vampire Simulation game?

Simulation + Vampires

Of 39 developers who shipped a Vampire Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 56 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.4k, ×5.5 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×1934 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 56 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 56 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Vampires
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 39
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $839 → $1.8k → $4.8k → $38k → $16k → $30k → $2.6k (still earning) → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Vampires: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 39
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $3.4k (exactly $3,443)
Top 25% $57k (exactly $56,752)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,214,392)
Developers, 2 yr 39
Released games 99
Announced 56
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Vampires
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Choose Your Own Adventure, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 8,365 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $3.4k, 1 in 4 over $56k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 7 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 56 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Monster Prom older $11.99 12,245 93% 367k $4.4M (exactly $4,404,526) Beautiful Glitch
The Infected · EA older $15.99 6,583 84% 197k $3.2M (exactly $3,157,865) DigX Studios
Moonlight Peaks $34.99 1,793 88% 54k $1.9M (exactly $1,882,112) Little Chicken
Cabernet $19.99 2,025 94% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,214,392) Party for Introverts
Castlevania Anniversary Collection older $19.99 1,798 80% 54k $1.1M (exactly $1,078,261) KONAMI
KeeperRL older $19.99 1,677 83% 50k $1.0M (exactly $1,005,697) Electric Succubi
Vampires: Bloodlord Rising · EA $19.99 1,631 70% 49k $978k (exactly $978,111) Mehuman Games
Blood Code older $9.99 1,728 73% 52k $518k (exactly $517,882) ZiX Solutions, Weixi Studio
Blood Bar Tycoon $19.99 773 79% 23k $464k (exactly $463,568) Clever Trickster Studio, Clever Trickst… (Clever Trickster Studio, Clever Trickster Productions)
Necrosmith older $2.99 4,885 85% 147k $438k (exactly $438,185) Alawar
Sex & Blood: Vampires $9.99 759 71% 23k $227k (exactly $227,472) Taboo Tales 💘
Menherarium: Deadly Dice $8.99 669 92% 20k $180k (exactly $180,429) テスカトリポカ
Suck Up! $16.99 205 62% 6.2k $104k (exactly $104,488) Proxima
Cage of Roses $12.99 190 88% 5.7k $74k (exactly $74,043) ebi-hime
Futa Nights: Bloody Sluts 💋 $14.99 159 74% 4.8k $72k (exactly $71,502) Dirty Adventures 🖤
Fledgling Manor $11.75 161 98% 4.8k $57k (exactly $56,752) In Secret Places

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.