Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Romance

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Romance Simulation game?

Simulation + Romance

Of 691 developers who shipped a Romance Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 828 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.1k, ×13 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $360k, ×577 the market median. Revenue is up 25% on the market; 828 games are announced against 396 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 12.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 25% on the market, 828 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Romance
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 691
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.8k → $9.7k → $13k → $12k → $6.7k → $7.9k → $5.7k (still earning) → $4.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Romance: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 691
Bottom 30% $1.8k (exactly $1,755)
Median $8.1k (exactly $8,092)
Top 25% $48k (exactly $48,286)
Top 5% $362k (exactly $362,139)
Developers, 2 yr 691
Released games 2,425
Announced 828
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Romance
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Dating Sim, Visual Novel, Choices Matter
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, Emotional
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 104,774 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $8.1k, 1 in 4 over $48k, 1 in 20 over $360k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 7 in 10 of the 465 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 828 games are announced against 396 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
inZOI · EA $39.99 30,020 77% 901k $36M (exactly $36,014,994) inZOI Studio
The Sims™ 3 older $19.99 31,071 85% 932k $19M (exactly $18,633,279) The Sims Studio, Maxis
Le Mans Ultimate $39.99 15,068 79% 452k $18M (exactly $18,077,080) Studio 397
Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut older $17.99 31,885 96% 957k $17M (exactly $17,208,334) Black Tabby Games
Fields of Mistria $13.99 31,918 96% 958k $13M (exactly $13,395,985) NPC Studio
Love Is All Around older $9.99 36,203 93% 1.1M $11M (exactly $10,850,039) intiny
House Party older $24.99 13,968 85% 419k $10M (exactly $10,471,810) Eek! Games, LLC
There Is No Game: Wrong Dimension older $12.99 24,144 97% 724k $9.4M (exactly $9,408,917) Draw Me A Pixel
STORY OF SEASONS: Friends of Mineral Town older $39.99 5,268 93% 158k $6.3M (exactly $6,320,020) Marvelous Inc.
Summer Pockets older $44.99 4,652 98% 140k $6.3M (exactly $6,278,804) VisualArts/Key
Date Everything! $29.99 6,629 93% 199k $6.0M (exactly $5,964,111) Sassy Chap Games
STORY OF SEASONS: Grand Bazaar $49.99 3,140 93% 94k $4.7M (exactly $4,709,058) Marvelous Inc.
Five Hearts Under One Roof $19.99 5,881 91% 176k $3.5M (exactly $3,526,836) Storytaco
Moonlight Peaks $34.99 1,793 88% 54k $1.9M (exactly $1,882,112) Little Chicken
FEMBOY FUTA HOUSE $14.99 4,131 89% 124k $1.9M (exactly $1,857,711) IT'S A TRAP
Sovereign Tower $19.99 3,087 93% 93k $1.9M (exactly $1,851,274) WILD WITS GAMES
Kaiju Princess 2 $17.99 3,107 96% 93k $1.7M (exactly $1,676,848) PantyParrot

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.